Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon UTOR (LABUYO) Update #016

for Wednesday, 14 August 2013 [9:37 AM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON UTOR (LABUYO) UPDATE NUMBER 016
Issued: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Wednesday 14 August 2013
Next Update: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Wednesday 14 August 2013

Typhoon UTOR (LABUYO) has started to weaken during the past 12 hours as it approaches the southern shores of Western Guangdong...increasing winds with blinding rain expected today.

This typhoon will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) bringing cloudy conditions with occasionally slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across Vietnam and the western sections of Luzon today. Flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes.

Residents and visitors along Guangdong and Guangxi Provinces of China including Hainan Island and Northern Vietnam should closely monitor the development of Utor (Labuyo).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 am today, the eye of Typhoon Utor (Labuyo) was located near the coast of Western Guangdong...about 235 km southeast of Zhanjiang City or 220 km east-northeast of Haikou, Hainan Island...currently moving northwesterly with a decreased forward speed of 15 km/hr towards Western Guangdong and Guangxi, China.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 175 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 65 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 260 kilometers. Utor (Labuyo) remains a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 740 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Utor (Labuyo) is estimated to be heavy (325 mm).

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

Typhoon Utor (Labuyo) is expected to continue moving northwestward for the next 24 hours...before it turns west-northwest to westward during the remaining of the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Utor (Labuyo) will be make landfall just east of Zhanjiang City and will be well over Westernmost part of Guangdong Province later tonight. By Thursday through Friday morning, Utor will be moving over land across the southeastern and central part of Guangxi Province.

Utor (Labuyo) is expected to rapidly weaken upon its landfall over Western Guangdong. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows Utor will be downgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS) with winds of 110 km/hr by Thursday morning...and into a Tropical Depression (TD) by Friday morning.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

THURSDAY MORNING: Weakens to a TS while over the southeastern part of Guangxi Province...about 170 km north-northwest of Zhanjiang, China [5AM AUGUST 15: 22.8N 110.0E @ 110kph].
FRIDAY MORNING: Weakens to a TD while over the central part Guangxi Province...about 235 km north-northeast of Mong Cai, Vietnam [5AM AUGUST 16: 23.6N 108.4E @ 55kph].
SATURDAY MORNING: Dissipates into an area of low pressure while off the eastern part of Guangxi...about 210 km north-northwest of Mong Cai, Vietnam [5AM AUGUST 17: 23.3N 107.3E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - Approaching the coast of Western Guangdong. Possible calm and lull conditions (with 20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: Westernmost Guangdong just east of Zhanjiang City (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Rest of Western Guangdong, Leizhou Peninsula and Northern Hainan.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: NW part of the South China Sea, Rest of Hainan Island, Southern Guangxi, and the rest of Guangdong (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 150 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 151 to 325 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Utor (Labuyo).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Western Guangdong, Leizhou Peninsula and Eastern Hainan today. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Southern China including the rest of Hainan Island (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Wed Aug 14, 2013
Class/Name: TY Utor (Labuyo)
Location of Eye: 20.3º N Lat 112.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 235 km SE of Zhanjiang, China
Distance 2: 240 km SW of Macao
Distance 3: 220 km ENE of Haikou, Hainan Is.
Distance 4: 285 km SW of Hong Kong
MaxWinds (1-min avg):175 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 215 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 2
Present Movement: NW @ 15 kph
Towards: Western Guangdong
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [325 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 948 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 740 km [Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 41 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY UTOR (LABUYO)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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