Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS MANGKHUT (KIKO) Update #004

for Wednesday, 07 August 2013 [7:53 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM MANGKHUT (KIKO) UPDATE NUMBER 004
Issued: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Wednesday 07 August 2013
Next Update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Thursday 08 August 2013

MANGKHUT (KIKO) has slightly gained more strength during the past 12 hours while passing in between Hainan Island and Central Vietnam...threat to Northern Vietnam increases. Its thick rainbands are still bringing moderate to heavy rains across Central Vietnam and some portions of Eastern Laos and is now starting to affect the eastern part of Northern Vietnam.

Residents and visitors along Northern Vietnam should closely monitor the development of Mangkhut (Kiko).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 6:00 pm today, the center of TS Mangkhut (Kiko) was located over the Gulf of Tonkin, near the eastern coast of Northern Vietnam...about 120 km southeast of Nam Dinh, Vietnam or 110 km east-southeast of Thanh Hoa, Vietnam...currently moving northwest with an increased forward speed of 22 km/hr towards Northern Vietnam.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 75 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Mangkhut (Kiko) has reduced to a small-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 220 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Mangkhut (Kiko) is estimated to be heavy (300 mm).

1-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TS Mangkhut (Kiko) is expected to continue moving northwestward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Mangkhut (Kiko) will make landfall over Northern Vietnam (very near Nam Dinh City) on or before midnight Thursday...and will traverse Northern Vietnam throughout Thursday.

Mangkhut (Kiko) is expected to weaken within the next 6 to 12 hours. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows the storm has weakened to a tropical depression of 55 km/hr center winds by Thursday early morning after making landfall over Northern Vietnam.

The following is the summary of the 1-day forecast outlook on this system:

THURSDAY EVENING: Near China-Vietnam border...weakens into an area of low pressure...dissipating over land...about 230 km northwest of Hanoi, Vietnam [6PM AUGUST 08: 22.3N 103.4E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-85 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Western seas of the Gulf of Tonkin and eastern coasts of Northern Vietnam.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Northern Vietnam and Western Hainan. (click here to know more about Rainbands)
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 300 mm (heavy) along areas to the south, west and near the center of Mangkhut (Kiko).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Wed Aug 07, 2013
Class/Name: TS Mangkhut (Kiko)
Location of Center: 19.5º N Lat 106.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 120 km SE of Nam Dinh, Vietnam
Distance 2: 110 km ESE of Thanh Hoa, Vietnam
Distance 3: 150 km ENE of Thai Hoa, Vietnam
Distance 4: 195 km SE of Hanoi, Vietnam
Distance 5: 205 km WNW of Dongfang, Hainan Is.
MaxWinds (1-min avg):75 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph
Present Movement: NW @ 22 kph
Towards: Northern Vietnam
CPA [ETA] to Northern Vietnam: Tonight [10PM-12AM PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [300 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 220 km [Small]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS MANGKHUT (KIKO)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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