Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon UTOR (LABUYO) Update #012

for Monday, 12 August 2013 [1:20 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON UTOR (LABUYO) UPDATE NUMBER 012
Issued: 12:00 NN PhT (04:00 GMT) Monday 12 August 2013
Next Update: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Monday 12 August 2013

Typhoon UTOR (LABUYO) is now over the West Philippine Sea...after it rapidly crossed Northern Luzon.

This typhoon will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) bringing cloudy conditions with occasionally slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across Western Visayas and MiMaRoPa today. Flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes.

Residents and visitors along Luzon should closely monitor the development of Utor (Labuyo).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 11:00 am today, the center of Typhoon Utor (Labuyo) was located over the West Philippine Sea...about 70 km northwest of San Fernando, La Union or 75 km southwest of Vigan, Ilocos Sur...currently moving west-northwest with an increased forward speed of 33 km/hr towards South China Sea.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have rapidly decreased to near 160 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 95 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 295 kilometers. Utor (Labuyo) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Utor (Labuyo) is estimated to be heavy (350 mm).

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

Typhoon Utor (Labuyo) is expected to continue moving west-northwestward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Utor (Labuyo) will be out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Tuesday morning. By Wednesday morning, Utor will be approaching the coast of Western Guangdong.

Utor (Labuyo) is expected to slightly regain strength as it traverses the West Philippine and South China Seas. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows Utor reintensifies to 165 km/hr by Tuesday morning...and intensifies further to 185 km/hr by Wednesday morning.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

TUESDAY MORNING: Over the South China Sea...reintensifies slightly...about 375 km south-southeast of Hong Kong, China 11AM AUGUST 13: 18.9N 114.9E @ 165kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Intensifies further as it approaches the coast of Western Guangdong in Southern China...about 130 km east-southeast of Zhanjiang City, China 11AM AUGUST 14: 21.0N 111.6E @ 185kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Weakening over Western Guangdong after making landfall...about 240 km northwesr of Zhanjiang City, China 11AM AUGUST 15: 23.2N 109.4E @ 100kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - Over West Philippine Sea. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: West Philippine Sea (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Western Provinces of Northern and Central Luzon
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Rest of Northern and Central Luzon including Metro Manila (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 350 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Utor (Labuyo).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date:11:00 AM PhT Mon Aug 12, 2013
Class/Name: TY Utor (Labuyo)
Location of Center: 17.1º N Lat 119.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 70 km NW of San Fernando, La Union
Distance 2: 75 km SW of Vigan, Ilocos Sur
Distance 3: 110 km NW of Baguio City
Distance 4: 130 km NNW of Dagupan City
Distance 5: 145 km SSW of Laoag City
Distance 6: 200 km N of Iba, Zambales
Distance 7: 310 km NNW of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg):160 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 195 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 2
Present Movement: WNW @ 33 kph
Towards: South China Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [350 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 959 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 555 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): N/A
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY UTOR (LABUYO)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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