Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Super Typhoon UTOR (LABUYO) Update #010

for Monday, 12 August 2013 [1:29 AM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

SUPER TYPHOON UTOR (LABUYO) UPDATE NUMBER 010
Issued: 12:00 MN PhT (16:00 GMT) Monday 12 August 2013
Next Update: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Monday 12 August 2013

UTOR (LABUYO) becomes the first Super Typhoon of the 2013 Season...Landfall over Aurora expected within the next few hours. Rainy weather prevailing across the whole of Luzon...becoming stormy over Northern Luzon.

This typhoon will enhance the weak Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) bringing cloudy conditions with occasionally slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across Western Visayas and MiMaRoPa tonight and Monday. Flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes.

Residents and visitors along Luzon should closely monitor the development of Utor (Labuyo).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 11:00 pm today, the eye of Typhoon Utor (Labuyo) was located over the the Philippine Sea...about 80 km southeast of Casiguran, Aurora or 120 km east of Baler, Aurora...currently moving west-northwest with a forward speed of 22 km/hr in the general direction of Aurora-Quirino Area.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have rapidly increased to near 240 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 95 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 295 kilometers. Utor (Labuyo) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Utor (Labuyo) is estimated to be heavy (350 mm).

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

Typhoon Utor (Labuyo) is expected to continue moving west-northwestward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Utor (Labuyo) will make landfall over Aurora between 2-4am Monday - passing over or very near the town of Casiguran. The typhoon will then cut across Northern Luzon via Quirino-Nueva Vizcaya-Benguet-La Union beginning Monday morning until the afternoon...and will emerge over the West Philippine Sea, just west of Ilocos Sur and La Union by Monday evening. On Tuesday evening, Utor (Labuyo) will be out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it turns NW towards Southern China.

Utor (Labuyo) is expected to start losing strength as it moves over land areas within the next 12 hours. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows Utor weakening to 160 km/hr on Monday evening. On Tuesday evening, the typhoon will regain its strength to 175 km/hr as it approaches Southern China.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

MONDAY EVENING: Over the West Philippine Sea...about to exit PAR...weakens slightly...about 280 km west-northwest of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur [11PM AUGUST 12: 18.0N 117.8E @ 175kph].
TUESDAY EVENING: Moving across the South China Sea...re-intensifies as it turns north-northwest...about 265 km south-southwest of Hong Kong, China [11PM AUGUST 13: 19.9N 113.6E @ 175kph].
WEDNESDAY EVENING: Makes landfall over Western Guangdong in Southern China...starts to weaken...about 125 km north-northeast of Zhanjiang, China [11PM AUGUST 14: 22.3N 111.0E @ 160kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - Still over the Philippine Sea. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: Northeastern Coast of Aurora including Casiguran (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Rest of Aurora, Northern Quezon, Polillo Island, Isabela, and Eastern Cagayan.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: The rest of Luzon including Metro Manila (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 350 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Utor (Labuyo).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 13-18 ft (4-5.5 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Northern Quezon, Aurora, Isabela, and Polillo Island tonight until early morning Monday. Extreme damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Luzon and Visayas (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Sun Aug 11, 2013
Class/Name: STY Utor (Labuyo)
Location of Eye: 15.8º N Lat 122.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 80 km SE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 2: 120 km E of Baler, Aurora
Distance 3: 135 km SSE of Palanan, Isabela
Distance 4: 160 km SE of Cauayan City
Distance 5: 185 km ENE of Cabanatuan City
Distance 6: 185 km SSE of Ilagan City
Distance 7: 190 km NNW of Daet, CamNorte
Distance 8: 225 km NE of Metro Manila
Distance 9: 235 km ESE of Baguio City
Distance 10: 260 km ESE of Dagupan City
MaxWinds (1-min avg):240 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 295 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 4
Present Movement: WNW @ 22 kph
Towards: Aurora-Quirino Area
CPA [ETA] to Aurora: Early Monday [1AM-4AM PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [350 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 937 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 555 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 35 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft (4-5.5 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on STY UTOR (LABUYO)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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