Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Powerful Typhoon UTOR (LABUYO) Update #009

for Sunday, 11 August 2013 [8:05 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON UTOR (LABUYO) UPDATE NUMBER 009
Issued: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sunday 11 August 2013
Next Update: 12:00 MN PhT (16:00 GMT) Monday 12 August 2013

Powerful Typhoon UTOR (LABUYO) is now a destructive system with winds of 215 km/hr...endangers Aurora and Quirino Provinces. Landfall expected within the vicinity of Casiguran early Monday morning. Its rainbands now covering the whole of Luzon.

This typhoon will enhance the weak Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) bringing cloudy conditions with occasionally slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across Western Visayas and MiMaRoPa tonight and Monday. Flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes.

Residents and visitors along Luzon should closely monitor the development of Utor (Labuyo).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 pm today, the eye of Typhoon Utor (Labuyo) was located over the the Philippine Sea...about 170 km north-northeast of Daet, Camarines Norte or 215 km southeast of Casiguran, Aurora...currently moving west-northwest with an increased forward speed of 24 km/hr in the general direction of Aurora-Quirino Area.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have rapidly increased to near 215 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 75 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 220 kilometers. Utor (Labuyo) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Utor (Labuyo) is estimated to be heavy (350 mm).

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

Typhoon Utor (Labuyo) is expected to continue moving west-northwestward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Utor (Labuyo) will be approaching the eastern shoreline of Aurora late tonight...and will make landfall over Aurora between 2-3am Monday - passing over or very close to the town of Casiguran. The typhoon will then cut across Northern Luzon via Quirino-Nueva Vizcaya-Benguet-La Union beginning Monday morning until the early afternoon...and will emerge over the West Philippine Sea, just west of Ilocos Sur and La Union by late Monday afternoon. On Tuesday afternoon, Utor (Labuyo) will be out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it moves WNW towards Southern China.

Utor (Labuyo) is expected to continue gaining strength within the next 12 hours. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows Utor reaching peak winds of more than 220 km/hr just after midnight, prior to making landfall over Aurora. On Monday afternoon, the typhoon will weaken to 160 km/hr after crossing Northern Luzon and will over the West Philippine Sea.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Over the West Philippine Sea, just west of Ilocos Sur...weakens slightly...about 140 km west-southwest of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur [5PM AUGUST 12: 17.4N 119.1E @ 160kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Moving across the South China Sea, outside of PAR...re-intensifies...about 340 km south-southeast of Hong Kong, China [5PM AUGUST 13: 19.2N 114.7E @ 165kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Bears down the coast of Western Guangdong Area in Southern China...maintains its strength...about 135 km east-southeast of Zhanjiang, China [5PM AUGUST 14: 21.1N 111.8E @ 165kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

28-KM. PIN-HOLE EYE - Still over the Philippine Sea. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: None (still over Philippine Sea) (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Coastal Areas of Aurora.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Bicol Region and the rest of Northern and Central Luzon incl. CaLaBaRZon and Polillo Island. (click here to know more about Rainbands)
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 350 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Utor (Labuyo).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 13-18 ft (4-5.5 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Northern Quezon, Aurora, Isabela, and Polillo Island tonight until early morning Monday. Extreme damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Luzon and Visayas (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sun Aug 11, 2013
Class/Name: TY Utor (Labuyo)
Location of Eye: 15.3º N Lat 123.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 135 km NNW of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 190 km NNW of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 165 km N of Caramoan, CamSur
Distance 4: 205 km NNE of Metro Naga
Distance 5: 170 km NE of Daet, CamNorte
Distance 6: 225 km ENE of Polillo Is.
Distance 7: 215 km SE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 8: 255 km ESE of Baler, Aurora
Distance 9: 375 km SE of Baguio City
Distance 10: 315 km ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg):215 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 260 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 4
Present Movement: WNW @ 24 kph
Towards: Aurora-Quirino Area
CPA [ETA] to Aurora: Early Monday [2AM-3AM PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [350 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 937 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 555 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 35 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft (4-5.5 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY UTOR (LABUYO)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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