Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD 10W (KIKO) Update #002

for Tuesday, 06 August 2013 [7:55 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (KIKO) UPDATE NUMBER 002
Issued: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Tuesday 06 August 2013
Next Update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Wednesday 07 August 2013

Tropical Depression 10W (KIKO) has slightly gained strength during the past 12 hours...threatens Southern Hainan and Northern Vietnam.

Residents and visitors along Northern Vietnam and Hainan Island should closely monitor the development of 10W (Kiko).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 6:00 pm today, the center of TD 10W (Kiko) was located over the South China Sea...about 250 km east-southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam or 340 km south-southeast of Sanya, Hainan Island...currently moving northwest with a decreased forward speed of 24 km/hr towards Northern Vietnam.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 55 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of 10W (Kiko) is estimated to be heavy (200 mm).

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TD 10W (Kiko) is expected to continue moving northwestward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of 10W (Kiko) will pass just to the southwest of Hainan Island by Wednesday noon...and make landfall over Northern Vietnam (in between Thanh Hoa and Nam Dinh Cities) by early Thursday morning. 10W (Kiko) will traverse Northern Vietnam throughout Thursday.

10W (Kiko) is expected to gradually intensify within the next 24 hours as it moves closer to Northern Vietnam. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows the storm briefly reaching peak sustained winds of 75 km/hr on Wednesday evening...then starts to weaken after making landfall on Thursday.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:

WEDNESDAY EVENING: Over the southern part of the Gulf of Tonkin, approaching Northern Vietnam...about 170 km southeast of Thanh Hoa, Vietnam [6PM AUGUST 07: 18.8N 107.0E @ 75kph].
THURSDAY EVENING: Near the China-Vietnam border...weakened into a remnant low pressure...about 230 km northwest of Hanoi, Vietnam [6PM AUGUST 08: 22.2N 104.0E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Coastal Areas of Central Vietnam and Southern Hainan. (click here to know more about Rainbands)
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (heavy) along areas to the south, west and near the center of 10W (Kiko).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Tue Aug 06, 2013
Class/Name: TD 10W (Kiko)
Location of Center: 15.3º N Lat 110.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 250 km ESE of Da Nang, Vietnam
Distance 2: 325 km ESE of Hue, Vietnam
Distance 3: 340 km SSE of Sanya, Hainan Is.
Distance 4: 460 km SSE of Dongfang, Hainan Is.
Distance 5: 790 km SE of Hanoi, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg):55 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph
Present Movement: NW @ 24 kph
Towards: Northern Vietnam
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [200 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 feet
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TD 10W (KIKO)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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