Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD 11W (LABUYO) Update #001

for Friday, 09 August 2013 [7:08 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (LABUYO) UPDATE NUMBER 001
Issued: 5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Friday 09 August 2013
Next Update: 5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Friday 09 August 2013

The strong Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 96W which was spotted yesterday over the Western Pacific Ocean, west of Guam has rapidly strengthened into Tropical Depression 11W (LABUYO)...threatens Northern Luzon with a potential of becoming a dangerous Typhoon...expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) later today.

Residents and visitors along Luzon should closely monitor the development of 11W (Labuyo).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 am today, the center of TD 11W (Labuyo) was located over the Western Pacific Ocean...about 440 km northwest of Yap Island or 1,185 km east of Catarman, Northern Samar...currently moving west-northwest with a forward speed of 15 km/hr towards Northern Luzon.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 45 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of 11W (Labuyo) is estimated to be heavy (150 mm).

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TD 11W (Labuyo) is expected to continue moving generally west-northwestward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of 11W (Labuyo) will enter the PAR later today...and move across the Central Philippine Sea through the weekend.

11W (Labuyo) is expected to gradually strengthen within the next 24 hours...becoming a Tropical Storm (TS) on Saturday...and eventually could become a Typhoon on Sunday. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows the potential Typhoon reaching peak winds of 185 km/hr on Sunday.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

SATURDAY MORNING: Enters PAR as it cruises over the Philippine Sea...becomes a TS...about 885 km east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes [5AM AUGUST 10: 14.0N 132.4E @ 85kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Becomes a typhoon...still over the Philippine Sea, but moving closer to Northern Luzon...about 460 km east-northeast of Pandan, Catanduanes [5AM AUGUST 11: 15.3N 128.3E @ 150kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Becomes a major typhoon while over the Philippine Sea...approaching the eastern coast of Isabela and Cagayan...about 150 km east of Palanan, Isabela [5AM AUGUST 12: 16.9N 123.8E @ 205kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: None. (click here to know more about Rainbands)
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 50 mm (slight to moderate rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 51 to 150 mm (moderate to heavy) along areas near the center of 11W (Labuyo).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Fri Aug 09, 2013
Class/Name: TD 11W (Labuyo)
Location of Center: 12.5º N Lat 135.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 55 km E of P.A.R.
Distance 2: 440 km NW of Yap, FSM
Distance 3: 1185 km E of Catarman, N.Samar
Distance 4: 1230 km ESE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 5: 1280 km ESE of Legazpi City
Distance 6: 1340 km ESE of Metro Naga
MaxWinds (1-min avg):45 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph
Present Movement: WNW @ 15 kph
Towards: Northern Luzon
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [150 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 feet
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

_____________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TD 11W (LABUYO)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts!
For more details: Text T2K TYPHOON to
2800 (Globe/TM) | Offline (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*Only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
Click here on how to use this service (in PDF file)
Powered by: Synermaxx Corporation

__._,_.___

Reply via web post

Reply to sender

Reply to group

Start a New Topic

Messages in this topic (1)

Recent Activity: