Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS UTOR (LABUYO) Update #004

for Saturday, 10 August 2013 [1:47 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM UTOR (LABUYO) UPDATE NUMBER 004
Issued: 12:00 NN PhT (04:00 GMT) Saturday 10 August 2013
Next Update: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Saturday 10 August 2013

Tropical Storm UTOR (LABUYO) continues to rapidly intensify...could become a Typhoon later today...threat to Central and Northern Luzon increases.

Residents and visitors along Luzon including Batanes Group of Islands should closely monitor the development of Utor (Labuyo).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 11:00 am today, the center of TS Utor (Labuyo) was located over the the Philippine Sea...about 585 km east-northeast of Catarman, Northern Samar or 605 km east of Virac, Catanduanes...currently moving west-northwest with an increased forward speed of 28 km/hr in the general direction of Northern Luzon.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have rapidly increased to near 100 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 95 kilometers from the center. Utor (Labuyo) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 445 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Utor (Labuyo) is estimated to be heavy (250 mm).

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TS Utor (Labuyo) is expected to continue moving generally west-northwestward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Utor (Labuyo) will be passing well to the north of Bicol Region on Sunday afternoon...approaching the eastern shoreline of Aurora on Sunday evening. The cyclone will make landfall over Aurora between 1-2am on Sunday...and cut across Northern Luzon via Quirino-Nueva Vizcaya-Benguet-La Union beginning early Monday morning until Monday noon.

Utor (Labuyo) is expected to continue to strengthen within the next 24 to 48 hours...becoming a Typhoon later today. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows the potential Typhoon reaching peak winds of more than 165 km/hr on Sunday evening - before it makes landfall over Aurora.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

SUNDAY MORNING: Intensifying...passing well to the north of Bicol Region...about 165 km north-northeast of Pandan, Catanduanes [11AM AUGUST 11: 15.2N 125.2E @ 150kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Crossing Northern Luzon...over the northern part of Benguet...about 40 km north-northeast of Baguio City, Benguet [11AM AUGUST 12: 16.7N 120.8E @ 165kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: Exits PAR as it moves across the South China Sea towards Hainan Island...about 435 km south-southeast of Hong Kong, China [11AM AUGUST 13: 18.5N 115.5E @ 130kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - where Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Near-Typhoon Force Winds (100-130 kph) will be expected along the CDO (click here to know more about CDO). Possible "Eye" may also be forming underneath the cirrus canopy. Affected Areas: None (still over the Philippine Sea).
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: None (still over Philippine Sea).
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: None yet (still over Philippine Sea)...but could reach Catanduanes Island late tonight of early Sunday. (click here to know more about Rainbands)
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 250 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Utor (Labuyo).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sat Aug 10, 2013
Class/Name: TS Utor (Labuyo)
Location of Center: 13.9º N Lat 129.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 585 km ENE of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 2: 605 km E of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 650 km E of Caramoan, CamSur
Distance 4: 665 km ENE of Legazpi City
Distance 5: 715 km E of Metro Naga
Distance 6: 745 km E of Daet, CamNorte
Distance 7: 855 km ESE of Polillo Island
Distance 8: 865 km SE of Casiguran, Aurora
MaxWinds (1-min avg):100 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph
Present Movement: WNW @ 28 kph
Towards: Northern Luzon
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [250 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 445 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS UTOR (LABUYO)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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