for Saturday, 03 August 2013 [8:14 PM PhT]
WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM JEBI (JOLINA) UPDATE NUMBER 008 [FINAL]
Issued: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Saturday 03 August 2013
Tropical Storm JEBI (JOLINA) moving very quickly across the northern part of Northern Vietnam after making landfall southwest of Mong Cai before noon today. Strong winds with heavy rains will be expected along the northwestern part of Northern Vietnam and the Chinese province of Yunnan tonight until tomorrow.
This storm will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) bringing cloudy conditions with occasionally slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across Laos, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam. Flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along mountain slopes.
Meanwhile, Tropical Disturbance 94W (LPA) remains disorganized as it approaches the eastern shoreline of Davao Oriental. Latest dynamic forecast models show the system becoming a Tropical Depression (TD) once it reaches the Sulu Sea or West Philippine Sea on Monday or Tuesday. Its developing center was located about 65 km SE of Cateel, Davao Oriental (7.3N Lat 126.9E Lon)...with maximum winds of 35 km/hr near the center...moving WNW @ 26 kph towards Central Mindanao. This disturbance has a medium chance (30-50%) of developing into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 hours. Its rainbands embedded within the ITCZ will bring cloudy skies with moderate to heavy rains and thunderstorms along the Bicol Region, Visayas and Mindanao tonight until Sunday.
*This is the last and final update on Jebi (Jolina).
Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 6:00 pm today, the center of TS Jebi (Jolina) was located over the northernmost part of Northern Vietnam...about 150 km northwest of Hanoi, Vietnam or 305 km west-northwest of Mong Cai, Vietnam...currently moving west-northwest with an increased forward speed of 37 km/hr towards the northwesternmost part of Vietnam and Southwestern China (Yunnan).
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 75 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-95 km/hr) extend outward up to 95 kilometers from the center. Jebi (Jolina) remains an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 445 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Jebi (Jolina) is estimated to be heavy (300 mm).
1-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TS Jebi (Jolina) is expected to continue moving rapidly west-northwestward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Jebi (Jolina) will move across the northwesternmost part of Northern Vietnam tonight and will be over the rugged terrain of Yunnan Province throughout Sunday.
Jebi (Jolina) is expected to continue weakening within the next 12 to 24 hours as it moves across land. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows the storm weakening to a Tropical Depression (TD) with winds of 55 km/hr on Sunday morning...and dissipating into a remnant low pressure on Sunday evening.
The following is the summary of the 1-day forecast outlook on this system:
SUNDAY EVENING: Over Yunnan Province in Southwestern China...just a remant low pressure [6PM AUGUST 04: 23.8N 99.3E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-95 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: The northernmost part of Northern Vietnam.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-55 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Rest of Northern Vietnam, Eastern Yunnan Province and Southern Guangxi Province. (click here to know more about Rainbands)
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 300 mm (heavy) along areas to the south, west and near the center of Jebi (Jolina).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Sat Aug 03, 2013
Class/Name: TS Jebi (Jolina)
Location of Center: 22.1º N Lat 105.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 150 km NW of Hanoi, Vietnam
Distance 2: 305 km WNW of Mong Cai, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg):75 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph
Present Movement: WNW @ 37 kph
Towards: SW China (Yunnan)
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [300 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 445 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): N/A
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft (0 m)
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS JEBI (JOLINA)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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