Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD 10W (KIKO) Update #001

for Tuesday, 06 August 2013 [8:38 AM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (KIKO) UPDATE NUMBER 001
Issued: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Tuesday 06 August 2013
Next Update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Tuesday 06 August 2013

The broad disturbance (LPA) over the West Philippine Sea has developed into Tropical Depression 10W (KIKO)...accelerating towards Northern Vietnam.

Residents and visitors along Northern Vietnam and Hainan Island should closely monitor the development of 10W (Kiko).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 6:00 am today, the center of TD 10W (Kiko) was located over the South China Sea...about 320 km northwest of Pagasa Island, Spratlys or 565 km southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam...currently moving west-northwest with an increased forward speed of 30 km/hr towards Northern Vietnam.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 45 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of 10W (Kiko) is estimated to be heavy (300 mm).

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TD 10W (Kiko) is expected to move northwestward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of 10W (Kiko) will continue to move across the South China Sea, passing near the shorelines of Da Nang and Hues Cities in Vietnam on Wednesday morning...and should make landfall over Northern Vietnam (in between Thanh Hoa and Nam Dinh Cities) on Thursday morning, just after sunrise.

10W (Kiko) is expected to gradually intensify within the next 24 to 36 hours as it moves closer to Northern Vietnam. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows the storm briefly reaching peak sustained winds of 75 km/hr on Wednesday afternoon...then starts to weaken after making landfall on Thursday.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

WEDNESDAY MORNING: Still over the South China Sea, passing near the coast of Central Vietnam...about 85 km northeast of Da Nang, Vietnam [6AM AUGUST 07: 16.6N 108.8E @ 65kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Making landfall over Northern Vietnam...about 100 km south of Hanoi, Vietnam [6AM AUGUST 08: 20.1N 105.9E @ 65kph].
FRIDAY MORNING: Dissipating over the Vietnam-China Border...just a weak Tropical Depression (TD)...about 265 km northwest of Hanoi, Vietnam [6AM AUGUST 09: 22.8N 104.1E @ 45kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-65 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Coastal Areas of Central Vietnam. (click here to know more about Rainbands)
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 300 mm (heavy) along areas to the south, west and near the center of 10W (Kiko).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Tue Aug 06, 2013
Class/Name: TD 10W (Kiko)
Location of Center: 13.6º N Lat 112.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 320 km NW of Pagasa Is., Spratlys
Distance 2: 420 km ENE of Nha Trang, Vietnam
Distance 3: 565 km SE of Da Nang, Vietnam
Distance 4: 620 km SSE of Sanya, Hainan Is.
Distance 5: 645 km SE of Hue, Vietnam
Distance 6: 800 km W of Lubang Is.
MaxWinds (1-min avg):45 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph
Present Movement: WNW @ 30 kph
Towards: Northern Vietnam
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [300 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft (0 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TD 10W (KIKO)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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