Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon UTOR (LABUYO) Update #007

for Sunday, 11 August 2013 [7:56 AM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON UTOR (LABUYO) UPDATE NUMBER 007
Issued: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sunday 11 August 2013
Next Update: 12:00 NN PhT (04:00 GMT) Sunday 11 August 2013

Typhoon UTOR (LABUYO) has maintained its strength while over the Philippine Sea and has accelerated while moving closer to Catanduanes. Its outer rainbands affecting Bicol Region, Northern Samar and the eastern coast of Luzon including Polillo Island.

This typhoon will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) bringing cloudy conditions with occasionally slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across Mindanao and Visayas. Flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes.

Residents and visitors along Luzon should closely monitor the development of Utor (Labuyo).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 am today, the eye of Typhoon Utor (Labuyo) was located over the the Philippine Sea...about 250 km east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or 280 km east-northeast of Caramoan, Camarines Sur...currently moving west-northwest with an increased forward speed of 28 km/hr in the general direction of Aurora-Quirino Area.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 165 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 55 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 165 kilometers. Utor (Labuyo) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Utor (Labuyo) is estimated to be heavy (300 mm).

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

Typhoon Utor (Labuyo) is expected to continue moving west-northwestward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Utor (Labuyo) will be passing well to the north of Bicol Region tonight...approaching the eastern shoreline of Aurora by early Monday morning. The cyclone will then make landfall over Aurora between 4-6am Monday - passing over or very close to the town of Casiguran...and cross Northern Luzon via Quirino-Nueva Vizcaya-Benguet-La Union beginning Monday morning until the afternoon. By Tuesday morning, Utor will be moving out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) or over the West Philippine Sea on its way towards Southern China.

Utor (Labuyo) is expected to continue gaining strength within the next 12 to 24 hours. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows Utor reaching peak winds of almost 200 km/hr by Monday early morning - before it makes landfall over Aurora. On Tuesday morning, the typhoon will weaken after crossing Luzon as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

MONDAY MORNING: Makes landfall over Aurora...about 10 km west-northwest of Casiguran, Aurora [5AM AUGUST 12: 16.2N 122.0E @ 195kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: Weakens while over the West Philippine Sea, exits PAR as it moves towards Southern China...about 370 km west of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [5AM AUGUST 13: 18.2N 117.1E @ 150kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Approaching the Leizhou Peninsula-Western Guangdong Area in Southern China...re-intensifies slightly...about 245 km south-southwest of Macau, China [5AM AUGUST 14: 20.1N 112.9E @ 160kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - Still over the Philippine Sea. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: None (still over Philippine Sea) (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: None (still over Philippine Sea).
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Bicol Region, Northern Samar, Eastern Coastal Areas of Aurora, Isabela, Northern Quezon including Polillo Island. (click here to know more about Rainbands)
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 300 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Utor (Labuyo).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Bicol Region, Northern Samar, Polillo Island, Northern Quezon, Aurora, & Isabela on Sunday. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Luzon and Visayas (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sun Aug 11, 2013
Class/Name: TY Utor (Labuyo)
Location of Eye: 14.5º N Lat 126.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 230 km ENE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 250 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 280 km ENE of Caramoan, CamSur
Distance 4: 315 km ENE of Legazpi City
Distance 5: 350 km ENE of Metro Naga
Distance 6: 370 km ENE of Daet, CamNorte
Distance 7: 475 km E of Polillo Is.
Distance 8: 490 km SE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 9: 535 km SE of Baler, Aurora
Distance 10: 560 km E of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg):165 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 2
Present Movement: WNW @ 28 kph
Towards: Aurora-Quirino Area
CPA [ETA] to Aurora: Early Monday [3AM-6AM PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [350 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 555 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 28 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY UTOR (LABUYO)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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