Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon PEIPAH (KABAYAN)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #007

Name: TYPHOON PEIPAH [KABAYAN/21W/0721]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) TUE 06 NOVEMBER 2007
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) WED 07 NOVEMBER
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 013
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TYPHOON PEIPAH (KABAYAN) GAINING STRENGTH SLIGHTLY AS IT DRIFTS

NORTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA...MAY MOVE SOUTHWEST AFTER

24 HOURS.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: PEIPAH is expected to track Westward for the next

12 to 18 hours and shall intensify slightly. The 2 to 5-day forecast

remains the same, showing PEIPAH maintaining its minimal Typhoon in-

tensity and moving SW'ly across the South China Sea. The system shall

be approaching the Eastern Coast of Southern Vietnam Saturday afternoon,

Nov 10 as a dissipating Tropical Storm and shall make landfall in the

vicinity of Nha Trang, Vietnam in the evening. It shall dissipate near

Ho Chi Minh City on Sunday, Nov 11.

+ EFFECTS: PEIPAH's circulation remains compact in the middle of the

South China Sea. Extreme Eastern portion of its outer rainbands conti-

nues to spread across coastal areas of Ilocos Provinces, La Union down

to Pangasinan. Scattered rains with moderate to strong winds of not

more than 60 km/hr will prevail along the Western portions of Northern

and Central Luzon. Coastal Storm Surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above

normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves can

be expected near and to the north of PEIPAH's projected path. Minimal

damage is possible on this type of storm surge. Far-fetched storm surge

is also possible along coastal areas of Western Luzon.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: The Tropical Disturbance (LPA/98W/1004 MB)

over the Philippine Sea continues to oscillate just to the east of

Northern Samar and remains disorganized. The system was located about

425 km. East of Catarman, Northern Samar (12.5N 128.5E). With winds

of 30 km/hr..it was moving NW slowly. This disturbance will be closely

monitored for possible development into a Tropical Cyclone within a

day or two.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Northeast (NE) Monsoon enhanced by TY

PEIPAH (KABAYAN) will continue to bring cloudy skies with intermittent

rains & strong NE'ly winds of 30 km/hr or higher across Batanes Group,

Taiwan and the Coastal areas of Southern and Eastern China. Landslides,

mudflows (lahars) and flooding is likely to occur along steep mountain/

volcano slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the

affected areas, while big sea waves or surges generated by this monsoon

can affect the coastal and beach-front areas of Extreme Northern Luzon.

Meanwhile, the rest of the Philippines is under the active ITCZ (Monsoon

Trough), which will bring scattered rains and thunderstorms most espe-

cially in the afternoon or evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 06 NOVEMBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 18.6º N...LONGITUDE 118.2º E
DISTANCE 1: 260 KM (140 NM) WNW OF VIGAN CITY, PH

DISTANCE 2: 255 KM (138 NM) WNW OF LAOAG CITY, PH

DISTANCE 3: 355 KM (192 NM) NW OF BAGUIO CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 365 KM (197 NM) NW OF DAGUPAN CITY, PH

DISTANCE 5: 535 KM (290 NM) NW OF METRO MANILA, PH

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 140 KM/HR (75 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 165 KM/HR (90 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 967 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 05 KM/HR (09 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTH CHINA SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 500 KM (270 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 24 FEET (7.3 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM MANILA TIME TUE NOVEMBER 06
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - ILOCOS NORTE & ILOCOS SUR.

12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 07 NOVEMBER: 18.6N 117.5E / 150-185 KPH / WSW @ 09 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 07 NOVEMBER: 18.3N 116.5E / 140-165 KPH / SW @ 11 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 08 NOVEMBER: 16.9N 114.4E / 120-150 KPH / SW @ 13 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 06 NOVEMBER POSITION: 18.6N 118.4E.
^THE SYSTEM WAS UPGRADED TO TYPHOON STATUS ON THE 05/18Z
WARNING AND HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE. ANIMATED VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 052302Z SSMI IMAGE DEPICT A TIGHTLY-
CURVED BANDING EYE. THE SSMI 37H IMAGE DEPICTS THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A SMALL WARM SPOT AT 18.4N
118.7E. TY 21W HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS AS IT MOVED INTO A WEAKER STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND IS
CURRENTLY MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS...(more)

>> PEIPAH {pronounced: pey~pah}, meaning: A popular pet fish in Macau.
Name contributed by: Macau.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 PM (08 GMT) 06 NOVEMBER: 18.5N 118.3E / WEST @ 9 KPH / 120 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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