Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS PEIPAH (KABAYAN)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #005

Name: TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH [KABAYAN/21W/0721]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) MON 05 NOVEMBER 2007
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) TUE 06 NOVEMBER
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 009
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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PEIPAH (KABAYAN) DOWNGRADED INTO A TROPICAL STORM

...HAS SLOWED DOWN

RAPIDLY WHILE OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA...TURNING WESTWARD.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: PEIPAH is expected to track Westward for the next

24 hours and re-intensify. The 2 to 5-day forecast shows PEIPAH becoming

a minimal Typhoon once again tomorrow afternoon, Nov 6 and shall move on

a SW'ly direction across the South China Sea. The system shall be approa-

ching the Eastern Coast of Southern Vietnam Friday morning, Nov 9 as a

downgraded Tropical Storm and make landfall just North of Nha Trang,

Vietnam Friday afternoon and start dissipating overland.

+ EFFECTS: PEIPAH's circulation has been disrupted by the terrain of

Luzon, with its eastern inner/outer rainbands dissipating overland. Its

western inner/outer rainbands remains strong over the South China Sea,

which is wrapping into the low-level center. Scattered rains with moderate

to strong winds of not more than 60 km/hr will still prevail along the

Western portions of Northern and Central Luzon. Coastal Storm Surge flooding

of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous

battering waves can be expected near and to the north of PEIPAH's projected

path Minimal damage is possible on this type of storm surge. Far-fetched

storm surge is also possible along coastal areas of Western Luzon.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: The Tropical Disturbance (LPA/98W/1004 MB) over

the Philippine Sea, NW of the Island of Palau remains weak. The system was

located about 605 km. East of Surigao City (9.9N 131.0E). With winds of 30

km/hr..it was moving WNW slowly. This disturbance will be closely monitored

for possible development into a Tropical Cyclone within a day or two.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Northeast (NE) Monsoon enhanced by TS PEIPAH

(KABAYAN) will continue to bring cloudy skies with intermittent rains &

strong NE'ly winds of 30 km/hr or higher across Taiwan and the Coastal

areas of Southern and Eastern China. Landslides, mudflows (lahars) and

flooding is likely to occur along steep mountain/volcano slopes, river

banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas, while big

sea waves or surges generated by this monsoon can affect the coastal

and beach-front areas of Extreme Northern Luzon. Meanwhile, the rest

of the Philippines is under the active ITCZ (Monsoon Trough), which

will bring scattered rains and thunderstorms most especially in the

afternoon or evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 04 NOVEMBER
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 17.7º N...LONGITUDE 118.9º E
DISTANCE 1: 160 KM (85 NM) WEST OF VIGAN CITY, PH

DISTANCE 2: 190 KM (105 NM) WSW OF LAOAG CITY, PH

DISTANCE 3: 230 KM (125 NM) NW OF BAGUIO CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 240 KM (130 NM) NNW OF DAGUPAN CITY, PH

DISTANCE 5: 710 KM (385 NM) SE OF HONG KONG, CHINA

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 130 KM/HR (70 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 982 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 06 KM/HR (11 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTH CHINA SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 555 KM (300 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 21 FEET (6.3 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM MANILA TIME MON NOVEMBER 05
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#02 - ILOCOS NORTE, ILOCOS SUR & ABRA.
#01 - PANGASINAN, LA UNION, BENGUET, MT. PROVINCE, KALINGA, APAYAO,

WESTERN CAGAYAN & THE BABUYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS.

12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 06 NOVEMBER: 17.8N 118.1E / 110-140 KPH / W @ 09 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 06 NOVEMBER: 17.7N 117.0E / 120-150 KPH / WSW @ 09 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 07 NOVEMBER: 16.4N 114.8E / 120-150 KPH / SW @ 15 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 05 NOVEMBER POSITION: 17.7N 119.2E.
^...(more)

>> PEIPAH {pronounced: pey~pah}, meaning: A popular pet fish in Macau.
Name contributed by: Macau.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 PM (08 GMT) 05 NOVEMBER: 18.1N 119.0E / WNW @ 15 KPH / 105 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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our website @:

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