Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon MITAG (MINA) hits Northern Cagayan...[Update #009]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #009

Name: TYPHOON MITAG [MINA/24W/0723]

Issued: 9:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) MON 26 NOVEMBER 2007
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 023
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TYPHOON MITAG {pronounced as: me~tok} (MINA) HAS MADE LANDFALL OVER

NORTHERN CAGAYAN, A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO AND IS NOW VERY NEAR THE TOWN

OF APARRI. ITS EYEWALL NOW BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS LASHING

CAGAYAN, ISABELA, ILOCOS NORTE AND APAYAO.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: MITAG (MINA) is expected to move back to sea or

over the Balintang Channel and graze the Islands of the Babuyan this

afternoon. This typhoon shall slow down abruptly as it begins recurva-

ture towards Southern Japan as its Northern bands affects Southern

Taiwan and the Batanes Group of Islands. The 2 to 5-day forecast shows

MITAG accelerating towards the northeast and weakening further into a

Tropical Storm due to increasing wind shear (upper level winds) and

lower sea surface temperatures over the area. This system is likely

to become Extratropical on Friday, Nov 30th.

+ EFFECTS: MITAG's Eyewall continues to blast the provinces of Isabela

& Cagayan with winds of 100 to 140 kph accompanied with very heavy

rains. Its inner rainbands on the other hand, continues to spread

across the northern portions of Northern Luzon, bringing strong winds

not in excess of 100 kph along w/ moderate to heavy rains today. Mean-

while, the outer rainbands continues to spread across the southern

portions of Northern & the rest of Central Luzon including Metro

Manila. Cloudy Skies with passing rainshowers and winds not exceeding

60 km/hr can be expected along the typhoon's outer bands. Coastal

Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...along

with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected near and to

the north of MITAG's projected path particularly over Northern &

Western Luzon and, on where the center makes landfall in Cagayan area.

Minimal damage is possible on this type of storm surge. Far-fetched

Storm Surge is also possible along coastal areas of Taiwan.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Strong Northeast (NE) Monsoon enhanced by
Typhoon MITAG (MINA) will continue to bring cloudy skies with inter-

mittent rainshowers & strong NE'ly winds of 30 km/hr or higher across
Taiwan and SE China. Landslides, mudflows (lahars) and flooding is
likely to occur along steep mountain/volcano slopes, river banks,
low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas, while big sea
waves or surges generated by this monsoon can affect the coastal and
beach-front areas of Taiwan and SE China.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: Tropical Storm HAGIBIS (LANDO) may re-enter

the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) after stalling for 3-days

near the coast of Southeastern Vietnam. A separate update will be issued

later today.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 26 NOVEMBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 18.2º N...LONGITUDE 121.8º E
DISTANCE 1: 30 KM (16 NM) SE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH

DISTANCE 2: 70 KM (37 NM) NORTH OF TUGUEGARAO CITY, PH

DISTANCE 3: 125 KM (67 NM) ENE OF LAOAG CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 255 KM (138 NM) SOUTH OF BASCO, BATANES, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 140 KM/HR (75 KTS) NEAR THE EYE
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 165 KM/HR (90 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 967 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 26 KM/HR (14 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: BABUYAN ISLANDS
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 555 KM (300 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 36 FEET (10.9 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM MANILA TIME MON NOVEMBER 26
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#03 - ISABELA, CAGAYAN, MT. PROVINCE, KALINGA, ABRA, ILOCOS NORTE,
APAYAO, BABUYAN & BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS.

#02 - NORTHERN AURORA, QUIRINO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, BENGUET, IFUGAO,
LA UNION & ILOCOS SUR.
#01 - REST OF AURORA, NUEVA ECIJA, TARLAC & PANGASINAN.

12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 26 NOVEMBER: 19.2N 121.0E / 140-165 KPH / N @ 11 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 27 NOVEMBER: 20.4N 121.1E / 140-165 KPH / NE @ 19 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 28 NOVEMBER: 23.2N 124.5E / 120-150 KPH / NE @ 24 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 26 NOVEMBER POSITION: 17.9N 122.1E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 24W (MITAG) HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AND MAINTAINED
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE STORM HAS BEEN THE PRIMARY STEERING
INFLUENCE...(more)
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) 26 NOVEMBER: 17.9N 121.4E / NNW @ 11 KPH / 140 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate_mina.shtml

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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Imagery, USA (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/mtsatfloat2.html)
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RECENT MTSAT-1R MICROWAVE IMAGE: new!
As of 5:08 AM Manila Time (21:08Z) 26 November 2007

> Image source: NRL TC Page, USA (http://199.9.2.143/tc_pages/tc_home.html)

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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red bold letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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