Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon PEIPAH (KABAYAN) now over Ilocos Sur... [Update #004]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #004

Name: TYPHOON PEIPAH [KABAYAN/21W/0721]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) MON 05 NOVEMBER 2007
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) MON 05 NOVEMBER
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 007
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TYPHOON PEIPAH (KABAYAN) IS NOW OFF THE CANDON POINT IN ILOCOS SUR

AFTER RAPIDLY CROSSING NORTHERN LUZON LAST NIGHT. TYPHOON CONDITIONS

WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ILOCOS PROVINCES, LA UNION AND THE

CORDILLERA AUTONOMOUS REGION THIS MORNING.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: PEIPAH is expected to be downgraded into a Tropical

Storm later due to the effects of land interaction. The 24-hour Forecast

shows the system resuming back to its Westward track. The 3 to 5-day long

range forecast shows PEIPAH reintensifying back to Typhoon strength early

Wednesday morning, Nov 7 and shall move SW'ly across the South China Sea.

PEIPAH shall be approaching the Eastern Coast of Southern Vietnam early

Friday morning, Nov 9.

+ EFFECTS: PEIPAH's weakening core is now over Coast of Ilocos Sur -

bringing strong winds in excess of 100 km/hr accompanied with very heavy

rains. Its inner rainbands on the other hand, continues to spread across

the whole of Western portions of Northern Luzon. Strong winds in excess

of 60 km/hr with intermittent heavy rains can be expected along its inner

bands. The storm's outer rainbands coninues to affect Central Luzon, South

China Sea, Batanes Group including Metro Manila...Rains and winds of up to

60 km/hr can be expected along these bands. Coastal Storm Surge flooding

of 3 to 4 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous

battering waves can be expected near and to the north of PEIPAH's projected

path Minimal damage is possible on this type of storm surge. Far-fetched

storm surge is also possible along coastal areas of Western Luzon.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: The Tropical Disturbance (LPA/98W/1004 MB) over

the Philippine Sea, near the Island of Palau has been moving NW'ly over

the past 6 hours and still organizing. The system was located about 935 km.

ESE of Surigao City (9.0N 134.0E). With winds of 30 km/hr..it was moving NW

@ 19 kph. This disturbance will be closely monitored for possible development

into a Tropical Cyclone within a day or two.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Northeast (NE) Monsoon enhanced by TY PEIPAH

(KABAYAN) will continue to bring cloudy skies with intermittent rains &

strong NE'ly winds of 30 km/hr or higher across Taiwan and the Coastal

areas of Southern and Eastern China. Landslides, mudflows (lahars) and

flooding is likely to occur along steep mountain/volcano slopes, river banks,

low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas, while big sea waves or

surges generated by this monsoon can affect the coastal and beach-front areas

of Extreme Northern Luzon. Meanwhile, the rest of the Philippines is under

the active ITCZ (Monsoon Trough), which will bring scattered rains and

thunderstorms most especially in the afternoon or evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 04 NOVEMBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 17.2º N...LONGITUDE 120.4º E
DISTANCE 1: 45 KM (25 NM) SOUTH OF VIGAN CITY, PH

DISTANCE 2: 90 KM (48 NM) NNW OF BAGUIO CITY, PH

DISTANCE 3: 115 KM (62 NM) SSW OF LAOAG CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 135 KM (73 NM) NORTH OF DAGUPAN CITY, PH

DISTANCE 5: 300 KM (160 NM) NNW OF METRO MANILA, PH

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 120 KM/HR (65 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 150 KM/HR (80 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 974 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 30 KM/HR (16 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTH CHINA SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 480 KM (260 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 20 FEET (6.0 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM MANILA TIME MON NOVEMBER 05
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#03 - MT. PROVINCE, IFUGAO, BENGUET, KALINGA, ABRA, ILOCOS SUR,
LA UNION AND NUEVA VIZCAYA.
#02 - ISABELA, CAGAYAN, APAYAO, ILOCOS NORTE, PANGASINAN, NOR-

THERN NUEVA ECIJA, QUIRINO AND NORTHERN AURORA.
#01 - BABUYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS, TARLAC, ZAMBALES, PAMPANGA,

BULACAN, REST OF NUEVA ECIJA AND REST OF AURORA.

12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 05 NOVEMBER: 17.4N 119.1E / 100-130 KPH / W @ 09 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 06 NOVEMBER: 17.4N 118.0E / 110-140 KPH / WSW @ 11 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 07 NOVEMBER: 16.4N 115.5E / 120-150 KPH / SW @ 11 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 05 NOVEMBER POSITION: 17.2N 120.9E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 21W (PEIPAH) HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY UNDER THE
COMBINED INFLUENCES OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. A BANDING EYE HAS APPEARED IN
RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY, INCLUDING A 040938Z WINDSAT PASS.
INTERACTION WITH THE ISLAND OF LUZON IS DISRUPTING THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE STORM CIRCULATION, HAMPERING DEVELOPMENT OF ASSOCIATED CONVEC-
TION IN THAT REGION OF THE STORM...(more)

>> PEIPAH {pronounced: pey~pah}, meaning: A popular pet fish in Macau.
Name contributed by: Macau.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) 05 NOVEMBER: 17.1N 120.9E / W @ 13 KPH / 105 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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