Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon MITAG (MINA) getting stronger as it moves closer to Bicol Region...[Update #004]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #004

Name: TYPHOON MITAG [MINA/24W/0723]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) THU 22 NOVEMBER 2007
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) FRI 23 NOVEMBER
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 009
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TYPHOON MITAG {pronounced as: me~tok} (MINA) HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTEN-

SIFICATION PROCESS...NOW A 150-KM/HR CATEGORY 1 SYSTEM...STILL HEADING

ON A DANGEROUSLY WESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS NORTHERN BICOL & QUEZON

PROVINCES.

**Communities along the Eastern Provinces of Central Philippines from
Quezon, Bicol down to Samar must be aware on the approach of this

intensifying Typhoon and take advance precautionary measures.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: MITAG (MINA) is expected to continue heading

Westward for the next 24 hours and intensify further. The typhoon may

start turning towards the WNW Friday evening and shall pass about 95

km. NNE of Pandan, Northern Catanduanes or 135 km. NNE of Virac, Sou-

thern Catanduanes around 2 AM Saturday Nov 24. Its EYE is expected to

pass to the North of Camarines Sur - about 130 km. NNE of the Caramoan

Coastline or about 170 km. NE of Naga City & 180 km. NE of Iriga City

between 8 AM til 2 PM local time Saturday, with forecast peak winds of

205 km/hr (Category 3). Its closest approach to Camarines Norte shall

be about 140 km. to the NNE of Daet around 5 PM til Saturday night.

The 3 to 5-day Forecast shows MITAG slowing down further Sunday mor-

ning upon approaching the coast of Aurora & Northern Quezon. The core

(eyewall + eye) of MITAG is forecast to make landfall over Baler,

Aurora around 2 or 3 PM Sunday afternoon (Nov 25) and cross Central &

Northern Luzon via Aurora-Nueva Ecija-Vizcaya border passing very

close to CASECNAN HydroPower Plant area by Sunday night and shall be

in the vicinity of Baguio City around 9AM Monday morning (Nov 26).

MITAG shall be off the coast of Pangasinan Monday afternoon. By

Tuesday morning, the system shall be downgraded into a Tropical

Storm and shall be over the South China Sea. Landfall Impact Forecast
(LIF) of this system now shows MITAG hitting Aurora Province Sunday

afternoon & cross Central & Northern Luzon through the evening until

Monday afternoon (Nov 26).

+ EFFECTS: MITAG's outer rainbands continues to spread across the Bicol

Region, Southern Tagalog and Samar Provinces. Cloudy Skies with passing

moderate to heavy rains and winds not exceeding 60 km/hr can be expected

along the outer bands. The typhoon's inner rainbands is expected to reach

Bicol Region and Samar tomorrow morning, Friday Nov 23. People living

around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay & of Bulusan Volcano in Sor-

sogon - especially along the areas where possible LAHAR FLOWS (mixture

of volcanic mud and water) are located must stay alert as moderate to

heavy rains associated by this approaching typhoon are likely to be felt

beginning late today until Monday morning. Coastal Storm Surge flooding

of 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous

battering waves can be expected near and to the north of MITAG's projec-

ted path particularly over Bicol Region and, on where the center makes

landfall in Aurora-Northern Quezon area. Extensive damage is possible

on this type of storm surge. Far-fetched storm surge is also possible

along coastal areas of Cagayan, Samar down to Surigao.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Strong Northeast (NE) Monsoon enhanced by
Typhoons HAGIBIS (LANDO) & MITAG (MINA) will continue to bring

cloudy skies with intermittent rainshowers & strong NE'ly winds of 30

km/hr or higher across Northern, Central and Eastern Luzon including

Metro Manila. Landslides, mudflows (lahars) and flooding is likely to

occur along steep mountain/volcano slopes, river banks, low-lying &

flood-prone areas of the affected areas, while big sea waves or

surges generated by this monsoon can affect the coastal and beach-

front areas of Eastern Philippines.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 22 NOVEMBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 14.5º N...LONGITUDE 128.2º E
DISTANCE 1: 445 KM (240 NM) ENE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH

DISTANCE 2: 510 KM (275 NM) ENE OF LEGAZPI CITY, PH

DISTANCE 3: 530 KM (285 NM) ENE OF IRIGA CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 550 KM (295 NM) ENE OF NAGA CITY, PH

DISTANCE 5: 575 KM (310 NM) ENE OF DAET, CAMARINES NORTE, PH

DISTANCE 6: 765 KM (413 NM) EAST OF METRO MANILA, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 150 KM/HR (80 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 185 KM/HR (80 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 963 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 17 KM/HR (09 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: AURORA AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 650 KM (350 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 23 FEET (7.0 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM MANILA TIME THU NOVEMBER 22
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#02 - CATANDUANES, SORSOGON, ALBAY, BURIAS-TICAO, CAMARINES PROVINCES,

SOUTHERN QUEZON, POLILLO & NORTHERN SAMAR.
#01 - MASBATE, ROMBLON, MARINDUQUE, BATANGAS, LAGUNA, REST OF QUEZON,

AURORA, RIZAL, ORIENTAL MINDORO, WESTERN & EASTERN SAMAR &
BILIRAN IS.

12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 23 NOVEMBER: 14.5N 127.1E / 165-205 KPH / W @ 13 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 23 NOVEMBER: 14.6N 125.7E / 185-230 KPH / W @ 11 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 24 NOVEMBER: 15.2N 123.4E / 205-250 KPH / WNW @ 07 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 22 NOVEMBER POSITION: 14.5N 128.6E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 24W (MITAG) WAS UPGRADED ON THE 21/18Z WARNING
BASED ON IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION WITH CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIM-
ATES RANGING FROM OF 65 KNOTS TO 77 KNOTS. A 212026Z SSMI 37GHZ IMAGE
DEPICTS A MICROWAVE EYE WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING. THE SYSTEM HAS
CONTINUED TO TRACK WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED NORTH...(more)
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 PM (08 GMT) 22 NOVEMBER: 14.4N 128.3E / W @ 15 KPH / 140 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate_mina.shtml

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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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