Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD 23W (LANDO) approaching Cebu-Negros...[Update #003]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #003

Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W [LANDO]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) MON 19 NOVEMBER 2007
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) TUE 20 NOVEMBER
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 003
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION

23W (NONAME) HAS CROSSED SOUTHERN LEYTE AND IS NOW

OFF CAMOTES SEA...STORM WARNING SIGNALS NOW HOISTED OVER THE VISAYAS.
*RESIDENTS OF THE VISAYAS MUST TAKE ALL PRECAUTIONARY MEASURES ON THIS

INTENSIFYING SYSTEM AND MUST BE ALERTED TODAY.

Note: PAGASA just upgraded LANDO into a Tropical Storm with Max Sus-
tained Winds of 65 km/hr.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: 23W (LANDO) is expected to cross Northern Cebu tonight

as it may become a Tropical Storm. It shall be crossing Panay Island early

tomorrow morning (Nov 20), passing just North of Iloilo City. The 24-hr

to 3-day Forecast shows 23W turning Westward upon passing over the Sulu

Sea tomorrow afternoon and cross the Northern tip of Palawan tomorrow

evening. 23W shall become a well-developed 130 km/hr Typhoon upon

reaching the middle part of South China Sea by Thursday afternon, Nov

22...heading Westward towards Vietnam.

+ EFFECTS: 23W's large rain circulation continues to affect and cover

the whole area of the Visayas and Mindanao...bringing moderate to heavy

rains with winds not exceeding 60 km/hr tonight and tomorrow..becoming

more intense along Samar, Leyte, Cebu, Northern Negros, Masbate & Panay.

Meanwhile, the Bicol Region remains under the outer rainbands of this

depression. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay

& of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas where

possible LAHAR FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located -

must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains w/ some strong winds asso-

ciated by this disturbance are likely to prevail today until tomorrow.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Strong Northeast (NE) Monsoon enhanced by

23W (LANDO) will continue to bring cloudy skies with intermittent rains

& strong NE'ly winds of 30 km/hr or higher across Northern and Eastern

Philippines. Landslides, mudflows (lahars) and flooding is likely to

occur along steep mountain/volcano slopes, river banks, low-lying &

flood-prone areas of the affected areas, while big sea waves or surges

generated by this monsoon can affect the coastal and beach-front

areas of Eastern Philippines.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: Tropical Disturbance 93W (LPA/1007 MB) now
moving away from the Marianas or about 445 km. SW of Guam or 1,800 km.

East of Visayas (10.5N 142.0E). Moving West slowly...with wind speed

of 30 km/hr near the potential center. This system will be closely

monitored for further development into another significant Tropical

Cyclone in the coming days. Click HERE to view the latest satellite
image on this new developing system.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 19 NOVEMBER
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 10.7º N...LONGITUDE 124.6º E
DISTANCE 1: 35 KM (20 NM) SOUTH OF ORMOC CITY, PH

DISTANCE 2: 80 KM (43 NM) SW OF TACLOBAN CITY, PH

DISTANCE 3: 90 KM (48 NM) NE OF CEBU CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 185 KM (100 NM) EAST OF BACOLOD CITY, PH

DISTANCE 5: 325 KM (175 NM) ESE OF BORACAY, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1000 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 24 KM/HR (13 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: NORTHERN CEBU-NORTHERN NEGROS & PANAY AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 500 KM (270 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 10 FEET (3.0 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM MANILA TIME MON NOVEMBER 19
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 72 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:

#02 - CEBU, BOHOL, NORTHERN NEGROS, GUIMARAS AND ILOILO.
#01 - AKLAN, ANTIQUE, CAPIZ, REST OF NEGROS, SIQUIJOR ISLAND, CUYO

ISLAND, LEYTE, SOUTHERN LEYTE, DINAGAT ISLAND, WESTERN AND

EASTERN SAMAR, CAMOTES IS., BILIRAN IS., SURIGAO DEL NORTE,
& CAMIGUIN ISLAND.

12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 20 NOVEMBER: 11.1N 122.9E / 65-85 KPH / W @ 20 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 20 NOVEMBER: 11.2N 120.7E / 75-95 KPH / W @ 15 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 21 NOVEMBER: 10.9N 116.7E / 130-160 KPH / W @ 15 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 19 NOVEMBER POSITION: 10.5N 125.2E.
^TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 23W HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS PRIMARILY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND AS IT TRACKS TOWARD
NORTHEASTERN MINDANAO. SYNOPTIC SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM EASTERN
MINDANAO INDICATE SLP NEAR 1003 MB WITH 1 MB 24-HOUR PRESSURE FALLS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING
SYSTEM WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND STRONG INFLOW AS EVIDENCED BY LOW-LEVEL
CLOUD LINES INDICATIVE OF ENHANCED WESTERLIES AND EASTERLIES.
AN 182335Z SSMI IMAGE DEPICTS EXCELLENT CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM...(more)
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 PM (08 GMT) 19 NOVEMBER: 10.2N 124.1E / WNW @ 13 KPH / 65 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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