Sunday, November 04, 2007

TS PEIPAH (KABAYAN) - Update #001


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #001
Name: TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH [KABAYAN/21W/0721] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) SUN 04 NOVEMBER 2007
Next Update: 1:00 PM (05:00 GMT) SUN 04 NOVEMBER
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 003
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
 
 
TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH (KABAYAN) NEWLY-FORMED OVER THE NORTHERN PHILI-
PPINE SEA...BARRELING WESTWARD TOWARDS NORTHERN LUZON
...SHALL MAKE
LANDFALL OVER ISABELA-NORTHERN AURORA AREA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
STORM WARNING SIGNALS NOW BEING RAISED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL LUZON.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: PEIPAH is expected to move slightly WSW within 12
hours and turn Westward, becoming a 120-km/hr, miminal Typhoon (Cate-
gory 1), prior to landfall over Southern Isabela-Northern Aurora area.
The 24 hour to 2-day Forecast shows the system making landfall just
South of Palanan Bay in Isabela around midnight tomorrow (Nov. 05,
Monday) and traverse Northern Luzon whole day tomorrow (Monday). It
shall abruptly weaken into a Tropical Storm as it interacts with the
mountainous terrain of Luzon (Sierra Madre and Cordillera Mountains).
It shall then move out into the South China Sea tomorrow evening and
move on a SW'ly direction. The 3 to 5-day long range forecast shows
PEIPAH reintensifying into a Typhoon as it as it approaches the Sou-
thern Coast of Vietnam sometime Friday morning, Nov 9

+ EFFECTS: PEIPAH's circulation has been expanding over the past 12
hours, with its outer rainbands now spreading across the Eastern
Coastline of Luzon including the Bicol Region. Rains and winds of up
to 60 km/hr can be expected along its outer bands. Coastal Storm
Surge flooding of 1 to 2 feet above normal tide levels...along with
large and dangerous battering waves can be expected near and to the
north of PEIPAH's projected path particularly over Isabela, Aurora,
Cagayan & Ilocos Norte. Minimal damage is possible on this type of
storm surge. Far-fetched storm surge is also possible along coastal
areas of Luzon.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITYNortheast (NE)
 Monsoon enhanced by TS
PEIPAH (KABAYAN) will continue to bring cloudy skies with intermi-
ttent rains & NE'ly winds of 15 km/hr or higher across the Bicol
Region & NW Luzon. Landslides, mudflows (lahars) and flooding is
likely to occur along steep mountain/volcano slopes, river banks,
low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas, while big sea
waves or surges generated by this monsoon can affect the coastal
and beach-front areas of Eastern Luzon, Bicol Region and Northern
Visayas. Meanwhile, the rest of the Philippines is under the active
ITCZ (Monsoon Trough), which will bring scattered rains and thun-
derstorms most especially in the afternoon or evening.
 
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
every 06 to 12 hours!

_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 04 NOVEMBER
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 17.3º N...LONGITUDE 125.3º E
DISTANCE 1: 360 KM (195
NM) NE OF CASIGURAN, AURORA, PH
DISTANCE 2: 385 KM (208 NM) ESE OF TUGUEGARAO CITY, PH
DISTANCE 3: 400 KM (215 NM) ESE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH
DISTANCE 4: 470 KM (255 NM) NNE OF NAGA CITY, PH 
DISTANCE 5: 550 KM (297 NM) NE OF METRO MANILA, PH
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 85 KM/HR (45 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 989 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 28 KM/HR (15 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: NORTHERN AURORA-ISABELA AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 370 KM (200 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 20 FEET (6.0 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM MANILA TIME SUN NOVEMBER 04
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD  

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#02 - CAGAYAN, ISABELA, QUIRINO & AURORA.
#01 - KALINGA, APAYAO, MT. PROVINCE, NUEVA VIZCAYA, NUEVA ECIJA, 
      QUEZON &
POLILLO ISLAND
.

12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 04 NOVEMBER: 17.0N 123.7E / 110-140 KPH / W @ 15 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 05 NOVEMBER: 17.0N 122.0E / 120-150 KPH / W @ 15 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 06 NOVEMBER: 17.0N 119.0E / 95-120 KPH / WSW @ 13 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 04 OCTOBER POSITION: 17.4N 125.8E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (PEIPAH) HAS CONSOLIDATED RAPID-
LY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, EXHIBITING EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OF AND RAPID LOW LEVEL ORGANIZATION. ALTHOUGH RE-
CENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING NEAR THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, AN EYE-FEATURE HAS NOT YET
APPEARED.
..(more)

>> PEIPAH {pronounced: pey~pah}, meaning: A popular pet fish in Macau
   Name contributed by: Macau.

_____________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
> 4 AM (20 GMT) 04 NOVEMBER: 17.3N 125.4E / WSW @ 19 KPH / 85 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
   
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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For the complete details on TS PEIPAH (KABAYAN)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
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