Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon MITAG (MINA) drifting WSW closer to Bicol Region...[Update #005]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #005

Name: TYPHOON MITAG [MINA/24W/0723]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) FRI 23 NOVEMBER 2007
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) FRI 23 NOVEMBER
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 011
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TYPHOON MITAG {pronounced as: me~tok} (MINA) HAS INTENSIFIED FURTHER

AND IS NOW A CATEGORY 2 TYPHOON....RESUMED ITS WESTWARD TRACK OVER

THE PAST 6 HOURS ENDANGERING THE BICOL REGION AND QUEZON.

**Communities along the Eastern Provinces of Central Philippines from
Quezon, Bicol down to Samar must be aware on the approach of this

intensifying Typhoon and take advance precautionary measures.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: MITAG (MINA) is expected to continue heading

Westward for the next 12 hours and intensify further. The typhoon

may start turning towards the WNW tonight and shall pass about 35 km.

North of Pandan, Northern Catanduanes or 80 km. North of Virac,

Southern Catanduanes around 4 AM tomorrow. Its EYE is expected to

pass to the North of Camarines Sur passing some 70 km. North of Par-

tido District of Camarines Sur and shall about 115 km. NNE of Naga

City & 125 km. North of Iriga City around 2 PM tomorrow, with forecast

peak winds of 215 km/hr (Category 4). Its closest approach to Camarines

Norte shall be about 70 km. to the North of Daet around 8 PM tomorrow.

The 3 to 5-day Forecast shows MITAG slowing down further Sunday after-

noon upon approaching the coast of Northern Quezon. The core (eyewall

+ eye) of MITAG is forecast to make landfall Dingalan Bay in Northern

Quezon (near the bounadry of Nueva Ecija & Bulacan approx 3 PM Sunday

(Nov 26) and cross Central Luzon via Nueva Ecija, Tarlac & Pangasinan.

MITAG shall be off the coast of Pangasinan Monday evening. By Tuesday

morning, the system shall be downgraded into a Tropical Storm and

shall be over the South China Sea. Landfall Impact Forecast (LIF) of
this system now shows MITAG hitting Northern Quezon Sunday afternoon

& cross Central Luzon through Sunday evening until Monday evening

(Nov 26).

+ EFFECTS: MITAG's Inner rainbands is now spreading across Catanduanes

Island and shall reach Camarines Sur-Albay-Sorsogon area this afternoon.

Strong winds of 60 to 80 kph w/ moderate to heavy rains can be expected

within the inner bands. Meanwhile, the outer rainbands continues to

spread across the Bicol Region, Southern Tagalog and Samar Provinces

and is now spreading across Northern Visayas. Cloudy Skies with passing

moderate to heavy rains and winds not exceeding 60 km/hr can be expected

along the outer bands. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano

in Albay & of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas

where possible LAHAR FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are lo-

cated must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this

approaching typhoon are likely to be felt beginning late today until

Monday morning. Coastal Storm Surge flooding of 9 to 12 feet above normal

tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves can be ex-

pected near and to the north of MITAG's projected path particularly over

Bicol Region and, on where the center makes landfall in Aurora-Northern

Quezon area. Extensive damage is possible on this type of storm surge

. Far-fetched storm surge is also possible along coastal areas of Cagayan,

Samar down to Surigao.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Strong Northeast (NE) Monsoon enhanced by
Typhoons HAGIBIS (LANDO) & MITAG (MINA) will continue to bring

cloudy skies with intermittent rainshowers & strong NE'ly winds of 30

km/hr or higher across Northern, Central and Eastern Luzon including

Metro Manila. Landslides, mudflows (lahars) and flooding is likely to

occur along steep mountain/volcano slopes, river banks, low-lying &

flood-prone areas of the affected areas, while big sea waves or

surges generated by this monsoon can affect the coastal and beach-

front areas of Eastern Philippines.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 23 NOVEMBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 14.0º N...LONGITUDE 126.6º E
DISTANCE 1: 265 KM (143 NM) ENE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH

DISTANCE 2: 330 KM (180 NM) ENE OF LEGAZPI CITY, PH

DISTANCE 3: 350 KM (190 NM) ENE OF IRIGA CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 370 KM (200 NM) ENE OF NAGA CITY, PH

DISTANCE 5: 400 KM (217 NM) EAST OF DAET, CAMARINES NORTE, PH

DISTANCE 6: 595 KM (320 NM) ESE OF METRO MANILA, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 165 KM/HR (90 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 205 KM/HR (110 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY TWO (2)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 954 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 15 KM/HR (08 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: NORTHERN BICOL-QUEZON AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 720 KM (390 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 23 FEET (7.0 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM MANILA TIME FRI NOVEMBER 23
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#02 - CATANDUANES & CAMARINES PROVINCES,

#02 - SORSOGON, ALBAY, BURIAS, MARINDUQUE, SOUTHERN QUEZON, POLILLO &
NORTHERN SAMAR.
#01 - MASBATE, ROMBLON, BATANGAS, LAGUNA, REST OF QUEZON, AURORA, RIZAL,
MINDORO, ISABELA, QUIRINO, WESTERN & EASTERN SAMAR & BILIRAN IS.

12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 23 NOVEMBER: 14.1N 125.6E / 175-215 KPH / W @ 05 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 24 NOVEMBER: 14.3N 124.5E / 195-240 KPH / WNW @ 09 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 25 NOVEMBER: 14.9N 122.5E / 205-250 KPH / WNW @ 09 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 23 NOVEMBER POSITION: 14.0N 126.9E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 24W (MITAG) HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY WHILE
TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 222355Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICT A WELL-
DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE TO SUPPORT THE CURRENT POSITION WITH
TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 12-HOUR
MOTION BASED ON A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOWING A SMALL MI
EYE FEATURE. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE JTWC FORECAST OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 FOR THE FIRST TIME...(more)
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) 20 NOVEMBER: 14.0N 126.5E / W @ 15 KPH / 160 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate_mina.shtml

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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Imagery, USA (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/mtsatfloat2.html)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red bold letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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