Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon NURI (KAREN)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #005

Name: TYPHOON NURI [KAREN/13W/0812]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) TUE 19 AUGUST 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 008
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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NURI (KAREN) BECOMES THE SEVENTH TYPHOON OF THE 2008 SEASON...MOVING

FASTER, CLOSER TO NORTHERN LUZON...MAY PASS JUST TO THE NORTH OF

CAGAYAN TOMORROW.

*This system may enhanced the SW Monsoon Rains across the Luzon & Visayas beginning
today.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: NURI's is expected to continue moving WNW for the

next 2 days - passing just to the north of Cagayan tomorrow morning,

Aug 20 at approximately 6-7 AM local time. The eye and its eyewall

shall move across the Calayan Group of Islands & pass just north of

Ilocos Norte tomorrow afternoon. The 3 to 5-day long-range forecast

shows NURI gradually turning NW to NNW across the South China Sea

Thursday morning (Aug 21) and shall make its final landfall along the

coast of Eastern Guangdong, near Shantou City (with 205 kph forecast

winds) on Friday afternoon, Aug 22. NURI shall dissipated over land

along China on Sunday, Aug 24. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There is

possibilty that NURI may turn NW earlier than expected, hitting

Batanes Area and into Southern Taiwan, if the High Pressure

Steering Ridge to its North weakens quickly.

+ EFFECTS: NURI's elongated circulation and spiral bands remains at sea.

Its westernmost outer rainbands is now approaching the eastern coast of

Luzon. Passing light to moderate rains and winds not exceeding 60 km/hr

can be expected along these outer bands. Residents in low-lying areas

must seek higher grounds for possible flooding & landslides due to the

anticipated heavy rains brought about by this disturbance. Precautionary

measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge

flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and

dangerous battering waves can be expected near and to the north of NURI's

projected path particularly when the system moves over Extreme Northern

Luzon. Minimal damage is possible on this type of storm surge. Far-fetched

storm surge is possible along coastal areas of Eastern Luzon with surf

reaching 3 feet at most.

+ CURRENT MONSOON TROUGH (ITCZ) INTENSITY: The Southwest (SW) Monsoon is

now being enhanced slowly by TY NURI (KAREN) affecting Southern Luzon &

NW Visayas. This wind system is expected to bring mostly cloudy skies

with possible "on-&-off" light to moderate to sometimes heavy rains &

winds not exceeding 40 km/hr.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 19 AUGUST
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 17.1º N...LONGITUDE 127.6º E
DISTANCE 1: 595 KM (322 NM) ENE OF CASIGURAN, AURORA, PH

DISTANCE 2: 630 KM (340 NM) ESE OF TUGUEGARAO CITY, PH
DISTANCE 3: 640 KM (345 NM) ESE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH

DISTANCE 4: 700 KM (378 NM) SE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 130 KM/HR (70 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 160 KM/HR (85 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 970 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 28 KM/HR (15 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: CAGAYAN-BATANES AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 611 KM (330 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 17 FEET (5.1 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM MANILA TIME TUE AUGUST 19
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
# 02 - CAGAYAN AND ISABELA.
# 01 - AURORA, POLILLO IS., QUIRINO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, BENGUET, LA
       UNION, IFUGAO, MT. PROVINCE, ILOCOS PROVINCES, KALINGA, ABRA,
       APAYAO, BATANES, BABUYAN & CALAYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS.

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 19 AUGUST: 17.6N 125.6E / 160-195 KPH / WNW @ 22 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 20 AUGUST: 18.3N 123.2E / 175-215 KPH / WNW @ 17 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 21 AUGUST: 20.1N 120.0E / 195-240 KPH / NW @ 13 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 22 AUGUST: 22.4N 118.0E / 205-250 KPH / NNW @ 11 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 19 AUGUST POSITION: 16.9N 128.3E.
^THE SYSTEM WAS UPGRADED TO A TYPHOON AT 18/12Z BASED ON IMPROVED
CONSOLIDATION, TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING AND A DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE ON THE 180647Z TMI 37H IMAGE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A STRENGTHENING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTER PROVIDING IMPROVED
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, PARTICULARLY OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST QUA-
DRANT...POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS REMAINED WEAK BUT HAS NOT PREVENTED THE
SYSTEM FROM RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING (30 KNOTS) OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
TYPHOON (TY) 13W HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK QUICKLY WESTWARD. IN GENERAL,
THE DYNAMIC MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND A WEAKER MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE MODEL TRACKERS HAVE SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY WEST
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE ARE MORE MODEL AIDS
AVAILABLE TO INCLUDE SUPERIOR PERFORMERS LIKE THE ECMWF
MODEL...(more)

>> NURI {pronounced: nu~ree}, meaning: Blue crowned parroquet in the
Malay language. Name contributed by: Malaysia.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) 19 AUGUST: 16.3N 128.3E / WEST @ 22 KPH / 120 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.Org (http://www.digital-typhoon.org/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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