Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS KAREN (13W)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #003

Name: TROPICAL STORM KAREN [13W]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) MON 18 AUGUST 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 004
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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13W BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM LOCALLY NAMED KAREN...STILL MOVING FAST

ON A WESTERLY TRACK TOWARDS EXTREME NORTHERN LUZON.

*This system may start enhancing the SW Monsoon Rains across the Philippines starting
tomorrow.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: KAREN is expected to maintain its WNW track for the

next 2 days while traversing the Philippine Sea. The 3 to 5-day long-range

forecast shows KAREN becoming a Typhoon and turning gradually towards the

NW to NNW on Thursday and Friday (Aug 21-22) in the direction of Taiwan.

It shall be approaching the Eastern Coast of Taiwan on early Saturday

morning, Aug 23 with projected wind speed of 205 km/hr. *Alternate Fore-

cast Scenario: There is a possibilty that KAREN may continue moving WNW
passing over Northern Luzon-Batanes Area, if the High Pressure Steering
Ridge to its North remains strong and extends westward.

+ EFFECTS: KAREN's radial circulation and spiral bands remains at sea and

is not yet affecting the Philippines. Once this system reaches the Phili-

ppine Sea, it may enhance the Southwest (SW) Monsoon and bring widespread

rains across the Philippines starting tomorrow.

+ CURRENT MONSOON TROUGH (ITCZ) INTENSITY: Strong ITCZ (aka. Monsoon Trough)

& Southwest Windflow affecting Southern Visayas & Mindanao. It shall bring
widespread scattered rains and thunderstorms - most especially in the
afternoon or evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 18 AUGUST
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 16.2º N...LONGITUDE 134.5º E
DISTANCE 1: 1,325 KM (715 NM) EAST OF CASIGURAN, AURORA

DISTANCE 2: 1,145 KM (618 NM) ENE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH

DISTANCE 3: 1,380 KM (745 NM) ESE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 95 KM/HR (50 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 993 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 28 KM/HR (15 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: EXTREME NORTHERN LUZON
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): --- KM (--- NM)/N/A
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 14 FEET (4.2 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME MON AUGUST 18
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 18 AUGUST: 16.8N 132.4E / 85-100 KPH / WNW @ 24 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 19 AUGUST: 17.5N 129.8E / 95-120 KPH / W @ 20 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 20 AUGUST: 18.4N 125.9E / 110-140 KPH / WNW @ 11 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 21 AUGUST: 19.7N 123.7E / 130-160 KPH / NW @ 09 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 18 AUGUST POSITION: 16.0N 135.2E.
^THE SYSTEM WAS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM (TS) ON THE 17/12Z
WARNING CYCLE BASED ON MARKEDLY IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
171005Z SSMIS IMAGE REVEALED IMPROVED, CONVERGENT CONVECTIVE BANDING
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUAD-
RANT. THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK QUICKLY WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
MODEL TRACKERS REMAIN LIMITED BUT IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 72...(more)

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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 AM (18 GMT) 18 AUGUST: 15.9N 134.1E / WNW @ 19 KPH / 65 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.Org (http://www.digital-typhoon.org/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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