Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD LAWIN

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #001

Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION LAWIN [98W]

Issued: 1:00 AM MANILA TIME (17:00 GMT) TUE 26 AUGUST 2008
Source: PAGASA SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER 002
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION LAWIN (98W) NEWLY-FORMED TO THE EAST OF BICOL

REGION...THREATENS NORTHERN BICOL REGION AND QUEZON PROVINCES...STORM

WARNING SIGNAL NUMBER ONE NOW HOISTED.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: LAWIN is expected to continue moving WNW for the next

24 hours and shall pass across the northern tip of Catanduanes Wednesday

afternoon, Aug 27 and be over Caramoan Peninsula in Camarines Sur Wednes-

day evening. It shall be over or very close to Metro Manila on Thursday

evening, Aug 28.

+ EFFECTS: LAWIN's developing outer bands may start to affect the Bicol

Region & Northern Visayas starting tomorrow, as its circulation has begun

to consolidate and improve on its organization. Scattered rains and gusty

winds not exceeding 55 km/hr can be expected along these bands over the

affected areas. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay

& of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas where possi-

ble MUDFLOWS (LAHAR) FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located

must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this depression

are likely to affect the area beginning tomorrow. Residents in low-lying

areas must seek higher grounds for possible flooding & landslides due to

the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this depression. Precautio-

nary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest (SW) Monsoon is likely to be

enhanced by LAWIN beginning tomorrow or Wednesday and affect the Western

sections of Visayas. This wind system is expected to bring mostly cloudy

skies with possible "on-&-off" light to moderate to sometimes heavy rains

& winds not exceeding 40 km/hr. Landslides, mudflows (lahars) and flooding

is likely to occur along steep mountain/volcano slopes, river banks, low-

lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 10:00 PM MANILA TIME (14:00 GMT) 25 AUGUST
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 13.5º N...LONGITUDE 128.3º E
DISTANCE 1: 445 KM (240 NM) EAST OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH

DISTANCE 2: 500 KM (270 NM) ENE OF LEGAZPI CITY, PH

DISTANCE 3: 530 KM (285 NM) EAST OF IRIGA CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 550 KM (298 NM) EAST OF NAGA CITY, PH
DISTANCE 5: 585 KM (315 NM) ESE OF DAET, CAMARINES NORTE, PH
MAX WINDS [10-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 70 KM/HR (38 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1000 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 11 KM/HR (03 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: NORTHERN BICOL-QUEZON AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 320 KM (170 NM)/SMALL
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 09 FEET (2.7 METERS)
VIEW PAGASA TRACKING MAP: 8 PM MANILA TIME MON AUGUST 25

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - CATANDUANES AND NORTHERN SAMAR.

24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
8 PM (12 GMT) 26 AUGUST: 13.7N 125.9E

8 PM (12 GMT) 27 AUGUST: 14.2N 123.4E

8 PM (12 GMT) 28 AUGUST: 14.8N 121.0E

REMARKS: 8 PM (12 GMT) 25 AUGUST POSITION: 13.5N 128.5E.
^...(more)

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RECENT PAGASA TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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