Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon NURI (KAREN) endangers Northern Luzon... [Update #006]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #006

Name: TYPHOON NURI [KAREN/13W/0812]

Issued: 12:00 PM MANILA TIME (04:00 GMT) TUE 19 AUGUST 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 009
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

_____________________________________________________________________________

TYPHOON NURI (KAREN) STILL INTENSIFYING AS IT RETURNS TO ITS WESTERLY

TRACK...ENDANGERS NORTHERN LUZON PARTICULARLY CAGAYAN, ISABELA AND

ILOCOS NORTE.

*This system may enhanced the SW Monsoon Rains across Southern Luzon & NW Visayas
today.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: NURI is expected to resume moving WNW for the next

24 hours & shall cross the Northern Cagayan tomorrow morning at appro-

ximately 7-8 AM local time. The eye and its eyewall shall move across

the Calayan Group of Islands & pass just north of Ilocos Norte tomorrow

afternoon. The 2 to 5-day long-range forecast shows NURI gradually tur-

ning NW to NNW across the South China Sea on Thursday morning, Aug 21

and shall make its final landfall along the coast of Eastern Guangdong,

near Shantou City on Friday morning, Aug 22. NURI shall dissipated over

land along China on Sunday, Aug 24. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There

is a slight possibilty that NURI may still turn NW earlier than expected,

hitting Batanes Area and into Southern Taiwan, if the High Pressure

Steering Ridge to its North weakens quickly.

+ EFFECTS: NURI's elongated circulation and spiral bands remains over

the Philippine Sea. Its western-most outer rainbands is now spreading

across the eastern coast of Luzon. Passing light to moderate rains and

winds not exceeding 60 km/hr can be expected along these outer bands.

Residents in low-lying areas must seek higher grounds for possible floo-

ing & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by

this disturbance. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide

levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected

near and to the north of NURI's projected path particularly when the

system moves over Extreme Northern Luzon. Minimal damage is possible on

this type of storm surge. Far-fetched storm surge is possible along

coastal areas of Eastern Luzon with surf reaching 3 feet at most.

+ CURRENT MONSOON TROUGH (ITCZ) INTENSITY: The Southwest (SW) Monsoon is

now being enhanced slowly by TY NURI (KAREN) affecting Southern Luzon &

NW Visayas. This wind system is expected to bring mostly cloudy skies

with possible "on-&-off" light to moderate to sometimes heavy rains &

winds not exceeding 40 km/hr.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 11:00 AM MANILA TIME (03:00 GMT) 19 AUGUST
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 17.3º N...LONGITUDE 126.1º E
DISTANCE 1: 445 KM (240 NM) ENE OF CASIGURAN, AURORA, PH

DISTANCE 2: 470 KM (255 NM) ESE OF TUGUEGARAO CITY, PH
DISTANCE 3: 480 KM (260 NM) ESE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH

DISTANCE 4: 560 KM (303 NM) SE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 150 KM/HR (80 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 185 KM/HR (100 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 963 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 26 KM/HR (14 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: CAGAYAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 610 KM (330 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 18 FEET (5.4 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 11 AM MANILA TIME TUE AUGUST 19
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#03 - CAGAYAN AND ISABELA.

#02 - BATANES, BABUYAN, CALAYAN, APAYAO, KALINGA, MT. PROVINCE,
IFUGAO, QUIRINO, NORTHERN AURORA & NUEVA VIZCAYA.
#01 - ILOCOS PROVINCES, ABRA, BENGUET, LA UNION, PANGASINAN, NUEVA
ECIJA & REST OF AURORA.

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
8 PM (12 GMT) 19 AUGUST: 17.7N 124.1E / 165-205 KPH / WNW @ 19 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 20 AUGUST: 18.3N 122.1E / 175-215 KPH / WNW @ 17 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 21 AUGUST: 20.3N 119.0E / 185-230 KPH / NW @ 13 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 22 AUGUST: 22.6N 117.1E / 195-240 KPH / NNW @ 11 KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 19 AUGUST POSITION: 17.1N 126.8E.
^TY NURI (13W) HAS STEADILY INTENSIFIED WHILE TRACKING GENERALLY
WESTWARD TOWARD LUZON OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. HINTS OF A DEVELOPING
EYE ARE APPARENT IN BOTH MULTISPECTRAL AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SATELLITE WIND OBSERVATIONS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOW A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM, WITH
SYNOPTIC SCALE EASTERLY FLOW COMPRESSING THE STREAMLINES ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW LAYER. THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TYPHOON AND BROADER-SCALE EASTERLY FLOW ARE
ACTING IN TANDEM TO PROVIDE EXCELLENT WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALSO APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING
TOWARD THE BASE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MIGRATING EASTWARD FROM
THE NORTHEASTERN CHINESE SEABOARD...(more)

>> NURI {pronounced: nu~ree}, meaning: Blue crowned parroquet in the
Malay language. Name contributed by: Malaysia.
_____________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 10 AM (02 GMT) 19 AUGUST: 17.2N 126.3E / WEST @ 22 KPH / 130 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

_______________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.Org (http://www.digital-typhoon.org/)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

:: Typhoon2000.com (T2K) Mobile >> Powered by: Synermaxx
Receive the latest 6-hrly storm updates on KAREN directly to your mobile phones! To get:
Send T2K TYPHOON to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY NURI (KAREN)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm