Monday, August 04, 2008

TD JULIAN (10W) exits PAR...[Update #002]


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #002
Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIAN [10W] 
Issued: 6:00 PM MANILA TIME (10:00 GMT) MON 04 AUGUST 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 002
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
 
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIAN (10W) NEARS TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS IT
EXITS THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR) ON A FAST WEST-SOUTH
WEST MOVEMENT...THREATENS SOUTHERN CHINA. ENHANCED SOUTHWEST MONSOON
CONTINUES TO BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS ACROSS WESTERN LUZON INCLU-
DING METRO MANILA AND SUBIC BAY.


+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: JULIAN is expected to become a Tropical Storm later
tonight while heading westward for the next 12 hours across the northern
part of the South China Sea. The 2 to 3-day medium range shows it becoming
a 110-km/hr storm while turning WNW in the direction of Western Guangdong,
China. It shall make landfall along Western Guangdong, more or less 200
km. West of Hong Kong on Wednesday afternoon, Aug 6 w/ complete dissipa-
tion the following day (Aug 7) - while moving WNW across the Chinese
Province of Guangxi.  

+ EFFECTS: JULIAN's large circulation continues to cover much of the South
China Sea, with its outer-spiral rain bands spreading across the Southern
Coastal areas of Eastern Guangdong in Southern China, Taiwan and the Phi-
lippine provinces of Ilocos Norte and Ilocos Sur, and Batanes. Widespread
rains and winds not in excess of 60 km/hr can be expected along the affec-
ted areas. Residents in low-lying areas must seek higher grounds for po-
ssible flooding & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought
about by this disturbance. Precautionary measures must be initiated if
necessary.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest (SW) Monsoon continues to be
enhanced by TD JULIAN. This wind system is currently bringing cloudy skies
with "on-&-off" to sometimes continuous moderate to heavy rains & winds not
exceeding 50 km/hr across the Rest of Luzon, becoming more intense across
Western Luzon including Metro Manila & Subic Bay. Landslides, mudflows
(lahars) and flooding is likely to occur along steep mountain/volcano
slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.
Strong ITCZ (aka. Monsoon Trough) affecting the whole Philippines. It
will continue to bring widespread scattered rains and thunderstorms -
most especially in the afternoon or evening.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: Meanwhile, Tropical Disturbance 99W (LPA/1004mb) 
located over the South China Sea has been absorbed and merged into the
large c
irculation of JULIAN.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
every 06 to 12 hours!

_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 04 AUGUST
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 19.6º N...LONGITUDE 117.6º
DISTANCE 1: 350 KM (188
NM) NW OF LAOAG CITY, PH 
DISTANCE 2: 410 KM (220 NM) WNW OF CALAYAN IS., PH 
DISTANCE 3: 470 KM (255 NM) WSW OF BASCO, BATANES, PH
DISTANCE 4: 455 KM (245 NM) SE OF HONG KONG, CHINA  
DISTANCE 5: 505 KM (272 NM) SE OF MACAU, CHINA  
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1000 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WSW @ 24 KM/HR (13 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTHERN CHINA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): --- KM (--- NM)/N/A
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 13 FEET (3.9 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 PM MANILA TIME MON AUGUST 04
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 72 HRS LEAD  

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - ILOCOS NORTE, ILOCOS SUR, ABRA, & LA UNION.


12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 05 AUGUST: 19.8N 116.1E / 75-95 KPH / WNW @ 15 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 05 AUGUST: 20.2N 114.4E / 95-120 KPH / WNW @ 15 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 06 AUGUST: 21.9N 111.4E / 110-140 KPH / NW @ 11 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 07 AUGUST: 23.2N 109.4E / 85-100 KPH / NW @ 11 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 04 AUGUST POSITION: 19.5N 118.1E.
^TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) JULIAN (10W) HAS CONSOLIDATED QUICKLY OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS AS IT HAS TRACKED AWAY FROM NORTHERN LUZON. ANI-
MATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING FORMING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE
EASTERN QUADRANT AND PERSISTENT BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. OVERALL, THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
BECOME WELL-DEFINED WITH A 032121Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTING
A CONVECTIVE RING AND BANDING CLEARLY WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER.
TD 10W HAS ACCELERATED WESTWARD WITHIN LOW-LEVEL ENHANCED EAS-
TERLY FLOW BETWEEN RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
AREA IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (CURRENTLY 99W).
..(more)

_____________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
 
> 4 PM (08 GMT) 04 AUGUST: 19.6N 117.9E / W @ 15 KPH / 75 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
   
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_____________________________________________________________________________


RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.Org (http://www.digital-typhoon.org/)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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For the complete details on TD JULIAN (10W)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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