Monday, August 04, 2008

Tropical Depression (TD) JULIAN (10W) - Update #001


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #001
Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIAN [10W] 
Issued: 12:00 PM MANILA TIME (04:00 GMT) MON 04 AUGUST 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 001
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
 
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIAN (10W) NEWLY-FORMED OVER THE BALINTANG CHANNEL-
NORTHERN SOUTH CHINA SEA AREA...ACCELERATING WESTWARD TOWARDS SOUTHERN
CHINA. HEAVY MONSOON RAINS AFFECTING METRO MANILA & SUBIC BAY.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: JULIAN is expected to become a Tropical Storm later
today and continue moving westward for the next 24 hours across the nor-
thern part of the South China Sea. The 2 to 4-day medium range shows it
becoming a Category 1 Typhoon and turning WNW in the direction of Western
Guangdong, China. It shall make landfall along Western Guangdong, more or
less 200 km. West of Hong Kong on Thursday morning, Aug 7 w/ dissipation
the following day (Aug 8).  

+ EFFECTS: JULIAN's circulation continues to improve, with much abundant
convective rain clouds along its Southern and SE quadrant - currently
affecting Extreme Northern Luzon. Widespread rains and winds not in excess
of 60 km/hr can be expected along the affected areas. Residents in low-
lying areas must seek higher grounds for possible flooding & landslides
due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this disturbance.
Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest (SW) Monsoon continues to be
enhanced by TD JULIAN. This wind system is currently bringing cloudy
skies with "on-&-off" to sometimes continuous moderate to heavy rains
& winds not exceeding 50 km/hr across the Rest of Luzon, becoming more
intense over Western Luzon including Metro Manila & Subic Bay. Strong
ITCZ (aka. Monsoon Trough) affecting the whole Philippines. It will
continue to bring widespread scattered rains and thunderstorms - most
especially in the afternoon or evening
.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: Meanwhile, Tropical Disturbance 99W (LPA/1004mb)
located over the South China Sea was located about 385 km. West of Laoag
City (16.1N 116.7E)...packing winds of 25 km/hr, this disturbance might
merge with the much stronger TD JULIAN located just to its NNE in the
coming hours. Click here to view the near real-time satellite photo
(courtesy of NRL/MTSAT-1R).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
every 06 to 12 hours!

_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 11:00 AM MANILA TIME (03:00 GMT) 04 AUGUST
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 19.6º N...LONGITUDE 119.0º
DISTANCE 1: 230 KM (125
NM) NW OF LAOAG CITY, PH 
DISTANCE 2: 265 KM (145 NM) WNW OF CALAYAN IS., PH 
DISTANCE 3: 330 KM (180 NM) WSW OF BASCO, BATANES, PH
DISTANCE 4: 580 KM (313 NM) SE OF HONG KONG, CHINA  
DISTANCE 5: 630 KM (340 NM) SE OF MACAU, CHINA  
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 45 KM/HR (25 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 65 KM/HR (35 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1002 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 20 KM/HR (11 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTHERN CHINA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): --- KM (--- NM)/N/A
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 11 FEET (3.3 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 8 AM MANILA TIME MON AUGUST 04
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 96 HRS LEAD  

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - CALAYAN, BABUYAN & BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS, NORTHERN CAGAYAN, 
      APAYAO, ILOCOS NORTE, ILOCOS SUR, ABRA, & LA UNION.


12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
8 PM (12 GMT) 04 AUGUST: 19.8N 117.9E / 65-85 KPH / W @ 13 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 05 AUGUST: 19.9N 116.4E / 85-100 KPH / W @ 13 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 06 AUGUST: 20.5N 113.7E / 120-150 KPH / NW @ 11 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 07 AUGUST: 22.0N 111.5E / 100-130 KPH / NW @ 09 KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 04 AUGUST POSITION: 19.6N 119.4E.
^TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) JULIAN (10W) HAS CONSOLIDATED QUICKLY OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS AS IT HAS TRACKED AWAY FROM NORTHERN LUZON. ANI-
MATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING FORMING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE
EASTERN QUADRANT AND PERSISTENT BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. OVERALL, THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
BECOME WELL-DEFINED WITH A 032121Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTING
A CONVECTIVE RING AND BANDING CLEARLY WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER.
TD 10W HAS ACCELERATED WESTWARD WITHIN LOW-LEVEL ENHANCED EAS-
TERLY FLOW BETWEEN RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
AREA IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (CURRENTLY 99W).
..(more)

_____________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
 
> 10 AM (02 GMT) 04 AUGUST: 19.6N 119.0E / W @ 19 KPH / 65 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
   
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_____________________________________________________________________________


RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.Org (http://www.digital-typhoon.org/)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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For the complete details on TD JULIAN (10W)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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