Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD LAWIN threatens Bicol Region... [Update #002]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #002

Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION LAWIN [98W]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) TUE 26 AUGUST 2008
Source: PAGASA SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER 003
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION LAWIN (98W) CONTINUES TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE BICOL

REGION...OUTER BANDS NOW SPREADING ACROSS CATANDUANES AND EASTERN

COAST OF CAMARINES SUR.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: LAWIN is expected to continue moving WNW for the

next 24 hours and shall pass across the northern coastal areas of Ca-

tanduanes and Camarines Provinces between 1 PM tomorrow afternoon until

8 PM tomorrow evening. The 2 to 3-day medium range forecast shows LAWIN

crossing Central Luzon Thursday afternoon, Aug 28 and shall be over the

South China Sea Friday morning Aug 29.

+ EFFECTS: LAWIN's circulation continues to improve and has become rather

compact and small. Its western outer bands has begun to spread across

Catanduanes Island and the Eastern coast of Camarines Sur, and is likely

to reach Albay and the whole of Camarines Sur later today. Widespread

rains and gusty winds not exceeding 55 km/hr can be expected along these

bands over the affected areas. People living around the slopes of Mayon

Volcano in Albay & of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the

areas where possible MUDFLOWS (LAHAR) FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and

water) are located must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associated

by this depression are likely to affect the area beginning late today. Re-

sidents in low-lying areas must seek higher grounds for possible flooding

& landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this

depression. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest (SW) Monsoon is likely to be

enhanced by LAWIN beginning today or Wednesday and affect the Western

sections of Visayas. This wind system is expected to bring mostly cloudy

skies with possible "on-&-off" light to moderate to sometimes heavy rains

& winds not exceeding 40 km/hr. Landslides, mudflows (lahars) and flooding

is likely to occur along steep mountain/volcano slopes, river banks, low-

lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 4:00 AM MANILA TIME (20:00 GMT) 26 AUGUST
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 13.8º N...LONGITUDE 127.2º E
DISTANCE 1: 325 KM (175 NM) EAST OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH

DISTANCE 2: 385 KM (208 NM) ENE OF LEGAZPI CITY, PH

DISTANCE 3: 415 KM (225 NM) EAST OF IRIGA CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 435 KM (235 NM) EAST OF NAGA CITY, PH
DISTANCE 5: 465 KM (250 NM) ESE OF DAET, CAMARINES NORTE, PH
MAX WINDS [10-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 70 KM/HR (38 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1000 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 11 KM/HR (03 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: NORTHERN BICOL-QUEZON AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 320 KM (170 NM)/SMALL
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 09 FEET (2.7 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 4 AM MANILA TIME TUE AUGUST 26

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - CAMARINES SUR, CAMARINES NORTE, CATANDUANES, ALBAY, BURIAS ISLAND,
TICAO ISLAND, SORSOGON & NORTHERN SAMAR.

24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 27 AUGUST: 14.1N 125.8E

2 AM (18 GMT) 28 AUGUST: 14.6N 122.4E

2 AM (18 GMT) 29 AUGUST: 15.2N 119.7E

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 26 AUGUST POSITION: 13.7N 127.4E.
^...(more)

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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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