Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #004
Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION LAWIN [14W]
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) WED 27 AUGUST 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #002
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #002
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LAWIN (14W) HAS BEEN PARTIALLY "CLOUD-FREE" (EXPOSED)
WITH MOST OF ITS THICK-RAIN CLOUDS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTH-
WESTERN PERIPHERY...STILL TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD CLOSER TO NORTHERN LUZON .
*The Southwest (SW) Monsoon continues to be enhanced by this system and is currently
bringing widespread rains across Metro Manila, Southern Luzon, Bicol Region & Western Luzon.
+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: LAWIN is expected to continue moving in a slow-WNW
bringing widespread rains across Metro Manila, Southern Luzon, Bicol Region & Western Luzon.
+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: LAWIN is expected to continue moving in a slow-WNW
track throughout the forecast and shall be off the coast of Northern
Cagayan early tomorrow morning approx 2 AM local time and may become a
Tropical Storm (TS). The 2 to 5-day long range forecast shows LAWIN
slowing down further into a snail-pace movement across the northern
coast of Cagayan and Ilocos Norte, near the same area where last week's
KAREN passed by. LAWIN shall move across the South China Sea through
Saturday and Sunday as a weakening system.
+ EFFECTS: LAWIN's circulation remains disorganized with most of its
+ EFFECTS: LAWIN's circulation remains disorganized with most of its
rainbands located south of its partially exposed Low Level Circulation
Center (LLCC). These rainclouds is expected to affect Central and Nor-
thern Luzon today until tomorrow bringing moderate to heavy rains es-
pecially along mountain slopes. Residents in low-lying areas must seek
higher grounds for possible flooding & landslides due to the antici-
pated heavy rains brought about by this depression. Precautionary
measures must be initiated if necessary.
+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest (SW) Monsoon continues to be
+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest (SW) Monsoon continues to be
enhanced by LAWIN across Bicol Region and Southwestern Luzon including
Metro Manila. This wind system is expected to bring mostly cloudy skies
with possible "on-&-off" light to moderate to sometimes heavy rains &
winds not exceeding 30 km/hr. Landslides, mudflows (lahars) and floo-
ding is likely to occur along steep mountain/volcano slopes, river
banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
_____________________________________________________________________________
TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 27 AUGUST
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 17.0º N...LONGITUDE 124.4º E
DISTANCE 1: 325 KM (175 NM) SE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
____________
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 17.0º N...LONGITUDE 124.4º E
DISTANCE 1: 325 KM (175 NM) SE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH
DISTANCE 2: 295 KM (160 NM) ESE OF TUGUEGARAO CITY, PH
DISTANCE 3: 260 KM (140 NM) NE OF CASIGURAN, AURORA, PH
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 45 KM/HR (25 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 65 KM/HR (35 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1002 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 13 KM/HR (07 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: CAGAYAN AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 400 KM (215 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 08 FEET (2.4 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM MANILA TIME WED AUGUST 27
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - CAMARINES SUR, CAMARINES NORTE, CATANDUANES, QUEZON. POLILLO
ISLAND, LAGUNA, RIZAL, AURORA, BULACAN, PAMPANGA, TARLAC, NUEVA
ECIJA, NUEVA VIZCAYA, PANGASINAN, BENGUET, IFUGAO, QUIRINO, LA
UNION, ILOCOS SUR, MT. PROVINCE & ISABELA.
12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 27 AUGUST: 17.5N 123.6E / 55-75 KPH / WNW @ 09 KPH
REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 27 AUGUST POSITION: 16.8N 124.7E.
^ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 261024Z SSMI IMAGE INDIC-
ATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AFTER A
BRIEF WEAKENING PERIOD. EARLIER MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWED A FULLY-
EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED WEST OF THE CENTER. SINCE THAT PERIOD, THE LLCC HAS
TRACKED INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS ANTICIPATED AND DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS RE-DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER. THE SSMI 37 GHZ
IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING FROM THE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) STATUS.
THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY LIMITED AND ALL THE MODELS
ARE POORLY INITIALIZING THE WEAK SYSTEM...(more)
_____________________________________________________________________________
PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 65 KM/HR (35 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1002 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 13 KM/HR (07 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: CAGAYAN AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 400 KM (215 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 08 FEET (2.4 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM MANILA TIME WED AUGUST 27
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - CAMARINES SUR, CAMARINES NORTE, CATANDUANES, QUEZON. POLILLO
ISLAND, LAGUNA, RIZAL, AURORA, BULACAN, PAMPANGA, TARLAC, NUEVA
ECIJA, NUEVA VIZCAYA, PANGASINAN, BENGUET, IFUGAO, QUIRINO, LA
UNION, ILOCOS SUR, MT. PROVINCE & ISABELA.
12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 27 AUGUST: 17.5N 123.6E / 55-75 KPH / WNW @ 09 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 28 AUGUST: 18.0N 122.6E / 65-85 KPH / WNW @ 07 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 29 AUGUST: 18.7N 121.3E / 45-65 KPH / WNW @ 05 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 30 AUGUST: 19.2N 120.3E / 45-65 KPH / WNW @ 05 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 30 AUGUST: 19.2N 120.3E / 45-65 KPH / WNW @ 05 KPH
REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 27 AUGUST POSITION: 16.8N 124.7E.
^ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 261024Z SSMI IMAGE INDIC-
ATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AFTER A
BRIEF WEAKENING PERIOD. EARLIER MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWED A FULLY-
EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED WEST OF THE CENTER. SINCE THAT PERIOD, THE LLCC HAS
TRACKED INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS ANTICIPATED AND DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS RE-DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER. THE SSMI 37 GHZ
IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING FROM THE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) STATUS.
THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY LIMITED AND ALL THE MODELS
ARE POORLY INITIALIZING THE WEAK SYSTEM...(more)
____________
PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
> 4 AM (20 GMT) 27 AUGUST: 15.2N 122.8E / WNW @ 17 KPH / 55 kph
:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.
_____________________________________________________________________________
RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:
RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:
________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/ )
__________________________________________________________________________________________
NOTES:
> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.
____________
^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.
latest warning.
* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
# 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
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__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TD LAWIN (14W)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
# 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
its center.
____________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.
http://www.nhc.
http://www.srh.
http://www.srh.
http://www.nhc.
____________
:: Typhoon2000.
Receive the latest 6-hrly storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To get:
Send T2K TYPHOON to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
For the complete details on TD LAWIN (14W)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2
> http://www.maybagyo
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