Wednesday, August 27, 2008

TD LAWIN (14W) approaching Cagayan-Isabela... [Update #004]


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #004
Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION LAWIN [14W] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) WED 27 AUGUST 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #002
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
 
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LAWIN (14W) HAS BEEN PARTIALLY "CLOUD-FREE" (EXPOSED)
WITH MOST OF ITS THICK-RAIN CLOUDS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTH-
WESTERN PERIPHERY...STILL TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD CLOSER TO NORTHERN LUZON.

*The Southwest (SW) Monsoon continues to be enhanced by this system and is currently
bringing widespread rains across Metro Manila, Southern Luzon, Bicol Region & Western Luzon.


+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: LAWIN is expected to continue moving in a slow-WNW
track throughout the forecast and shall be off the coast of Northern
Cagayan early tomorrow morning approx 2 AM local time and may become a
Tropical Storm (TS). The 2 to 5-day long range forecast shows LAWIN
slowing down further into a snail-pace movement across the northern
coast of Cagayan and Ilocos Norte, near the same area where last week's
KAREN passed by. LAWIN shall move across the South China Sea through
Saturday and Sunday as a weakening system. 

+ EFFECTS: LAWIN's circulation remains disorganized with most of its
rainbands located south of its partially exposed Low Level Circulation
Center (LLCC). These rainclouds is expected to affect Central and Nor-
thern Luzon today until tomorrow bringing moderate to heavy rains es-
pecially along mountain slopes. Residents in low-lying areas must seek
higher grounds for possible flooding & landslides due to the antici-
pated heavy rains brought about by this depression. Precautionary
measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY
The Southwest (SW) Monsoon continues to be
enhanced by LAWIN across Bicol Region and Southwestern Luzon including
Metro Manila. This wind system is expected to bring mostly cloudy skies
with possible "on-&-off" light to moderate to sometimes heavy rains &
winds not exceeding 30 km/hr. Landslides, mudflows (lahars) and floo-
ding is likely to occur along steep mountain/volcano slopes, river
banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
every 06 to 12 hours!

_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 27 AUGUST
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 17.0º N...LONGITUDE 124.4º
DISTANCE 1: 325 KM (175
NM) SE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH 
DISTANCE 2: 295 KM (160 NM) ESE OF TUGUEGARAO CITY, PH  
DISTANCE 3: 260 KM (140 NM) NE OF CASIGURAN, AURORA, PH
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 45 KM/HR (25 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 65 KM/HR (35 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1002 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 13 KM/HR (07 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: CAGAYAN AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 400 KM (215 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 08 FEET (2.4 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM MANILA TIME WED AUGUST 27

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - CAMARINES SUR, CAMARINES NORTE, CATANDUANES, QUEZON. POLILLO 
      ISLAND, LAGUNA, RIZAL, AURORA, BULACAN, PAMPANGA, TARLAC, NUEVA 
      ECIJA, NUEVA VIZCAYA, PANGASINAN, BENGUET, IFUGAO, QUIRINO, LA 
      UNION, ILOCOS SUR, MT. PROVINCE & ISABELA.


12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 27 AUGUST: 17.5N 123.6E / 55-75 KPH / WNW @ 09 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 28 AUGUST: 18.0N 122.6E / 65-85 KPH / WNW @ 07 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 29 AUGUST: 18.7N 121.3E / 45-65 KPH / WNW @ 05 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 30 AUGUST: 19.2N 120.3E / 45-65 KPH / WNW @ 05 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 27 AUGUST POSITION: 16.8N 124.7E.
^ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 261024Z SSMI IMAGE INDIC-
ATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AFTER A
BRIEF WEAKENING PERIOD. EARLIER MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWED A FULLY-
EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED WEST OF THE CENTER. SINCE THAT PERIOD, THE LLCC HAS
TRACKED INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS ANTICIPATED AND DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS RE-DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER. THE SSMI 37 GHZ
IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING FROM THE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) STATUS.
THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY LIMITED AND ALL THE MODELS
ARE POORLY INITIALIZING THE WEAK SYSTEM
...(more)

_____________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
> 4 AM (20 GMT) 27 AUGUST: 15.2N 122.8E / WNW @ 17 KPH / 55 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
   
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these 
      signals, visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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For the complete details on TD LAWIN (14W)...go visit
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>
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