Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS JULIAN (10W) heads for Southern China...[Update #003]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #003

Name: TROPICAL STORM JULIAN [10W]

Issued: 6:00 AM MANILA TIME (22:00 GMT) TUE 05 AUGUST 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 004
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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JULIAN (10W) BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM WHILE SLOWING DOWN ITS WESTWARD

TRACK..REMAINS A THREAT TO SOUTHERN CHINA...SOUTHWEST MONSOON RAINS

CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN LUZON INCLUDING METRO MANILA AND

SUBIC BAY.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: JULIAN is expected to continue heading westward

for the next 12 hours across the northern part of the South China Sea,

turning WNW early tomorrow morning. It is likely to become a minimal

typhoon tomorrow afternoon. The 2 to 4-day medium range shows the sys-

tem making landfall along Western Guangdong, more or less 200 km. West

of Hong Kong on Thursday afternoon, Aug 7 w/ complete dissipation on

Aug 8 - while moving WNW across the Chinese Province of Guangxi.

+ EFFECTS: JULIAN's large circulation continues to cover much of the

South China Sea, with its outer-spiral rain bands spreading across the

Southern Coastal areas of Eastern Guangdong in Southern China, Taiwan

and the Philippine provinces of Ilocos Norte and Ilocos Sur, and Batanes.

Widespread rains and winds not in excess of 60 km/hr can be expected

along the affected areas. Residents in low-lying areas must seek higher

grounds for possible flooding & landslides due to the anticipated heavy

rains brought about by this disturbance. Precautionary measures must be

initiated if necessary.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest (SW) Monsoon continues to be

enhanced by TS JULIAN. This wind system is currently bringing cloudy

skies with "on-&-off" to sometimes continuous moderate to heavy rains

& winds not exceeding 50 km/hr across the Rest of Luzon, becoming more

intense across Western Luzon including Metro Manila & Subic Bay. Land-

slides, mudflows (lahars) and flooding is likely to occur along steep

mountain/volcano slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas

of the affected areas. Strong ITCZ (aka. Monsoon Trough) affecting the

whole Philippines. It will continue to bring widespread scattered rains

and thunderstorms - most especially in the afternoon or evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 05 AUGUST
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 19.5º N...LONGITUDE 116.8º E
DISTANCE 1: 425 KM (230 NM) NW OF LAOAG CITY, PH

DISTANCE 2: 410 KM (220 NM) SE OF HONG KONG, CHINA

DISTANCE 3: 435 KM (235 NM) SOUTH OF SHANTOU, CHINA

DISTANCE 4: 450 KM (243 NM) SE OF MACAU, CHINA

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 65 KM/HR (35 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 85 KM/HR (45 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 996 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 13 KM/HR (07 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTHERN CHINA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): --- KM (--- NM)/N/A
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 15 FEET (4.5 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME TUE AUGUST 05
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 96 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - ILOCOS NORTE, ILOCOS SUR & LA UNION.

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 05 AUGUST: 19.6N 116.0E / 85-100 KPH / WNW @ 11 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 06 AUGUST: 20.0N 114.9E / 100-130 KPH / WNW @ 11 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 07 AUGUST: 21.2N 112.6E / 110-140 KPH / NW @ 11 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 08 AUGUST: 22.5N 110.4E / 85-100 KPH / NW @ 09 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 05 AUGUST POSITION: 19.5N 117.1E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W HAS MOVED WESTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
INTENSIFYING ABOVE 35 KNOTS UNDER FAVORABLE LOW- AND UPPER-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STORM
WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN
SCATTEROMETRY DATA AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. TS 10W BRIEFLY ACCELERATED
WESTWARD UNDER AN IMPROVED STEERING ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH EN-
HANCED EASTERLY FLOW, BUT THEN SLOWED AND BRIEFLY TRACKED MORE EQUATOR-
WARD IN RESPONSE TO A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE ORIENTATION OF THE WEST-
ERN PORTION OF THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH...(more)

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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) 05 AUGUST: 19.6N 116.8E / W @ 11 KPH / 75 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.Org (http://www.digital-typhoon.org/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS JULIAN (10W)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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