Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #005
Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION LAWIN [14W]
Issued: 6:00 PM MANILA TIME (10:00 GMT) WED 27 AUGUST 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #004
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #004
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
LAWIN (14W) WHICH REACHED TROPICAL STORM STATUS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS
HAS WEAKENED BACK TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH...EXPOSED CENTER NOW OFF
THE EAST COAST OF CAGAYAN...RAINCLOUDS DISPLACED ALONG NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
LUZON BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINS.
THE EAST COAST OF CAGAYAN...RAINCLOUD
LUZON BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINS.
*The Southwest (SW) Monsoon continues to be enhanced by this system and is currently
bringing widespread rains across Metro Manila, Palawan, Southern Luzon, Bicol Region
& western sections of Luzon & Visayas.
+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: LAWIN is expected to slow in its WNW track throughout
bringing widespread rains across Metro Manila, Palawan, Southern Luzon, Bicol Region
& western sections of Luzon & Visayas.
+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: LAWIN is expected to slow in its WNW track throughout
the forecast and shall cross the northern tip of Cagayan late tonight
approx 10 PM local time and may weaken further due to land interaction.
The 2 to 4-day medium range forecast shows LAWIN continuing on its snail-
pace movement across the northern coast of Cagayan and Ilocos Norte, near
the same area where last week's KAREN passed by. LAWIN shall move across
the South China Sea through Friday and Saturday as a dissipating system.
+ EFFECTS: LAWIN's circulation has become disorganized with its rainbands
+ EFFECTS: LAWIN's circulation has become disorganized with its rainbands
sheared south & west of its partially exposed Low Level Circulation Center
(LLCC). These rainclouds is expected to affect Central and Northern Luzon
today until tomorrow bringing light to moderate to at times heavy rains
especially along the mountain slopes. Residents in low-lying areas & steep
slopes must seek evacuation for possible flooding & landslides due to the
anticipated heavy rains brought about by this storm. Precautionary measures
must be initiated if necessary.
+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest (SW) Monsoon continues to be
+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest (SW) Monsoon continues to be
enhanced by LAWIN across Bicol Region and Southwestern Luzon including
Metro Manila, Palawan & Western Visayas. This wind system is expected to
bring mostly cloudy skies with possible "on-&-off" light to moderate to
sometimes heavy rains & winds not exceeding 30 km/hr. Landslides, mudflows
(lahars) and flooding is likely to occur along steep mountain/volcano
slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.
Meanwhile, ITCZ (aka. Monsoon Trough) & Southwest Windflow affecting Rest
of Visayas and Mindanao. It shall bring widespread scattered rains and
thunderstorms - most especially in the afternoon or evening.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
_____________________________________________________________________________
TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 27 AUGUST
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 18.1º N...LONGITUDE 122.6º E
DISTANCE 1: 100 KM (55 NM) ESE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
____________
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 18.1º N...LONGITUDE 122.6º E
DISTANCE 1: 100 KM (55 NM) ESE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH
DISTANCE 2: 110 KM (60 NM) NE OF TUGUEGARAO CITY, PH
DISTANCE 3: 175 KM (95 NM) SE OF CALAYAN ISLAND, CAGAYAN, PH
DISTANCE 4: 275 KM (150 NM) SSE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1000 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 19 KM/HR (10 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: CAGAYAN-BABUYAN AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 400 KM (215 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 10 FEET (3.0 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM MANILA TIME WED AUGUST 27
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - ISABELA, CAGAYAN, BATANES-BABUYAN-CALAYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS, APAYAO,
KALINGA, ABRA, MT. PROVINCE, IFUGAO, ILOCOS SUR & ILOCOS NORTE.
12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 28 AUGUST: 18.5N 121.6E / 55-75 KPH / WNW @ 09 KPH
REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 27 AUGUST POSITION: 17.9N 122.9E.
^ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 262258Z SSMI IMAGE
REVEAL A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO INCREASING NORTH-
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DESPITE THIS INCREASE IN SHEAR, TS 14W
HAS STRENGTHENED TO 35 KNOTS DUE TO THE IMPROVED LLCC AND ENHANCED
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS UNRELIABLE
DUE TO POOR INITIALIZATION OF THE WEAK SYSTEM, AND VARIATION IN THE
DEPICTION OF THE STRENGTH OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CUR-
RENTLY MOVING OVER EASTERN CHINA...(more)
_____________________________________________________________________________
PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1000 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 19 KM/HR (10 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: CAGAYAN-BABUYAN AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 400 KM (215 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 10 FEET (3.0 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM MANILA TIME WED AUGUST 27
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - ISABELA, CAGAYAN, BATANES-BABUYAN-
KALINGA, ABRA, MT. PROVINCE, IFUGAO, ILOCOS SUR & ILOCOS NORTE.
12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 28 AUGUST: 18.5N 121.6E / 55-75 KPH / WNW @ 09 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 28 AUGUST: 18.9N 120.7E / 55-75 KPH / WNW @ 07 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 29 AUGUST: 19.8N 119.1E / 45-65 KPH / NW @ 05 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 30 AUGUST: 20.8N 118.3E / 45-65 KPH / N @ 05 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 30 AUGUST: 20.8N 118.3E / 45-65 KPH / N @ 05 KPH
REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 27 AUGUST POSITION: 17.9N 122.9E.
^ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 262258Z SSMI IMAGE
REVEAL A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO INCREASING NORTH-
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DESPITE THIS INCREASE IN SHEAR, TS 14W
HAS STRENGTHENED TO 35 KNOTS DUE TO THE IMPROVED LLCC AND ENHANCED
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS UNRELIABLE
DUE TO POOR INITIALIZATION OF THE WEAK SYSTEM, AND VARIATION IN THE
DEPICTION OF THE STRENGTH OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CUR-
RENTLY MOVING OVER EASTERN CHINA...(more)
____________
PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
> 4 PM (08 GMT) 27 AUGUST: 18.3N 122.7E / NW @ 15 KPH / 55 kph
:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.
_____________________________________________________________________________
RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:
RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:
________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/ )
__________________________________________________________________________________________
NOTES:
> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.
____________
^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.
latest warning.
* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
# 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
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__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TD LAWIN (14W)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
# 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
its center.
____________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.
http://www.nhc.
http://www.srh.
http://www.srh.
http://www.nhc.
____________
:: Typhoon2000.
Receive the latest 6-hrly storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To get:
Send T2K TYPHOON to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
For the complete details on TD LAWIN (14W)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2
> http://www.maybagyo
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