Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS KAMMURI (JULIAN) strengthens...[Update #004]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #004

Name: TROPICAL STORM KAMMURI [JULIAN/10W/0809]

Issued: 6:00 PM MANILA TIME (10:00 GMT) TUE 05 AUGUST 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 006
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TROPICAL STORM JULIAN (10W) IS NOW INTERNATIONALLY KNOWN AS KAMMURI

...STRENGTHENS AS IT CONTINUES ON ITS WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK TOWARDS
WESTERN GUANGDONG...SOUTHWEST MONSOON RAINS CONTINUES TO SPREAD
ACROSS WESTERN LUZON INCLUDING METRO MANILA AND SUBIC BAY.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: KAMMURI is expected to continue heading WNW for the

next 24 hours towards the Coast of Western Guangdong, and shall make

landfall along Western Guangdong tomorrow night - about more or less

100 km. West of Hong Kong. Complete dissipation of this cyclone is

forecast on the afternoon of Aug 8 while moving WNW across the

Chinese Province of Guangxi.

+ EFFECTS: KAMMURI's large circulation continues to cover much of the

South China Sea, with its inner-spiral rain bands spreading across the

Southern Coastal areas of Guangdong, Hong Kong & Macau. Widespread rains

and winds not in excess of 75 km/hr can be expected along the affected

areas. Residents in low-lying areas must seek higher grounds for possi-

ble flooding & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought

about by this disturbance. Precautionary measures must be initiated

if necessary.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest (SW) Monsoon continues to be

enhanced by TS KAMMURI. This wind system is currently bringing cloudy

skies with "on-&-off" to sometimes continuous moderate to heavy rains &

winds not exceeding 50 km/hr across the Rest of Luzon, becoming more

intense across Western Luzon including Metro Manila & Subic Bay. Land-

slides, mudflows (lahars) and flooding is likely to occur along steep

mountain/volcano slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of

the affected areas. Strong ITCZ (aka. Monsoon Trough) affecting the

whole Philippines. It will continue to bring widespread scattered

rains and thunderstorms - most especially in the afternoon or evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 05 AUGUST
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 20.4º N...LONGITUDE 115.2º E
DISTANCE 1: 235 KM (127 NM) SSE OF HONG KONG, CHINA

DISTANCE 2: 260 KM (140 NM) SE OF MACAU, CHINA

DISTANCE 3: 500 KM (270 NM) ESE OF ZHANJIANG, CHINA

DISTANCE 4: 615 KM (332 NM) NW OF LAOAG CITY, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 95 KM/HR (50 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 993 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 13 KM/HR (07 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: WESTERN GUANGDONG, CHINA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 590 KM (320 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 15 FEET (4.5 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 PM MANILA TIME TUE AUGUST 05
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 72 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE.

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 06 AUGUST: 20.8N 114.5E / 85-100 KPH / NW @ 11 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 06 AUGUST: 21.5N 113.4E / 95-120 KPH / WNW @ 15 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 07 AUGUST: 22.7N 110.2E / 55-75 KPH / W @ 13 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 08 AUGUST: 23.1N 107.4E / 35-55 KPH / -- @ -- KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 05 AUGUST POSITION: 20.3N 115.5E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) KAMMURI 10W HAS MOVED GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL
EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. INTENSIFICATION HAS HELD
STEADY WITH CONVECTION SLOW TO CENTRALIZE AROUND THE LLCC. A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL LOCATED TO THE EAST HAS CONTINUED
TO EVACUATE MASS POLEWARD, WHILE BROAD-SCALE NORTHEASTERLY DIFFLUENT
FLOW HAS PROVIDED EQUATORWARD EXHAUST. FLARING CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER HAS MADE POSITIONING OF THE SYSTEM VERY DIFFICULT...(more)

>> KAMMURI {pronounced: ka~moo~ree}, meaning: Corona Borealis; crown.
Name contributed by: Japan.
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.Org (http://www.digital-typhoon.org/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS KAMMURI (JULIAN/10W)...go visit
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> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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