Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon RAMMASUN (BUTCHOY)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #002

Name: TYPHOON RAMMASUN [BUTCHOY/03W/0802]

Issued: 11:00 AM MANILA TIME (03:00 GMT) FRI 09 MAY 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 008
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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RAMMASUN (BUTCHOY) BECOMES THE SECOND TYPHOON OF 2008...THREAT TO
EASTERN PHILIPPINES DIMINISHING.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: RAMMASUN is expected to continue moving North for

the next 2 days due to a passing mid-latitude low pressure (aka. fron-

tal system) South of Japan and shall reach its peak intensity of 185

km/hr (Category 3) on Sunday morning. The 3 to 5-day long range fore-

cast shows the storm recurving on a fast NE to ENE track, passing north

of Chichi Jima Island on Monday evening. It shall become an Extratro-

pical Cyclone by Wednesday morning. Majority of the Global Forecast

Models continues to show the storm heading Northward to NNE, sparing

the Philippines on a direct hit.

+ EFFECTS: RAMMASUN's main circulation continues to rotate across the

Southern Philippine Sea. The western outer rain bands remains onshore

(over the sea) east of Visayas and Mindanao. Far-fetched storm surge

is possible along coastal areas of Eastern Philippines with surf

reaching 2-3 feet at most.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: None.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Light to Moderate Southwest (SW) Monsoon

which is locally induced by RAMMASUN, has started affecting Western &

Southern Mindanao particularly Zamboanga. The monsoon-affected areas

will have cloudy skies with moderate to heavy rains, thunderstorms &

SW'ly winds not exceeding 40 km/hr today and tomorrow. Landslides,

mudflows (lahars) and flooding is likely to occur along steep moun-

tain/volcano slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of

the affected areas. Meanwhile, big sea waves or surges generated by

this monsoon can affect the coastal and beach-front areas of the

abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 11:00 AM MANILA TIME (03:00 GMT) 09 MAY
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 11.5º N...LONGITUDE 132.2º E
DISTANCE 1: 785 KM (425 NM) EAST OF TACLOBAN CITY, PH

DISTANCE 2: 835 KM (450 NM) ESE OF CATARMAN, NORTHERN SAMAR, PH

DISTANCE 3: 890 KM (481 NM) ESE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH

DISTANCE 4: 940 KM (508 NM) ESE OF LEGAZPI CITY, PH
DISTANCE 5: 1,005 KM (542 NM) ESE OF NAGA CITY, PH
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 120 KM/HR (65 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 150 KM/HR (80 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 974 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NORTH @ 17 KM/HR (09 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: PHILIPPINE SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 610 KM (330 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 17 FEET (5.1 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 8 AM MANILA TIME FRI MAY 09
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
8 PM (12 GMT) 09 MAY: 12.8N 132.3E / 150-185 KPH / N @ 19 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 10 MAY: 14.8N 132.2E / 165-205 KPH / N @ 19 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 11 MAY: 19.2N 132.7E / 185-230 KPH / NNE @ 28 KPH
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 11 AM (03 GMT) 09 MAY: 11.1N 131.8E / NE @ 15 KPH / 105 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.Org (http://www.digital-typhoon.org/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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