Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD COSME (95W) moving closer to Western Luzon... [Update #004]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #004

Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME [05W]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) FRI 16 MAY 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 002
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME (05W) SLOWLY GAINING STRENGTH AS IT DRIFTS
TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...INCREASING ITS THREAT TO WESTERN LUZON

PARTICULARLY ZAMBALES AND LA UNION.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: COSME is expected to become a Tropical Storm later

this morning and continue moving NNE for the next 12 hours. It shall

then begin moving NE in the direction of Western & Northern Luzon to-

morrow morning. COSME shall pass over Lingayen Gulf before noon tomo-

rrow (Saturday), reaching its forecast peak intensity of 95 km/hr.

The 2 to 5-day long range forecast shows the storm making landfall

over La Union province tomorrow afternoon and cross Northern Luzon

tomorrow evening. It shall then exit out into the Philippine Sea via

Northern Cagayan early Sunday morning (May 18) w/ its strength down

to 85 or 75 km/hr. By early Monday morning, May 19, COSME shall again

re-intensify while moving across the Northern Philippine Sea with

winds of 100 km/hr as it accelerates NE towards Japan.

+ EFFECTS: COSME's circulation has become more compact with most of

its rain bands still over the South China Sea. However, these bands

shall reach the Western coastline of Luzon (from La Union down to

Northern Palawan) later today. These rain bands are expected to bring

moderate to sometimes heavy rains along with winds not exceeding 60

km/hr. People living in low-lying areas must seek higher grounds for

possible flooding due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about

by this system. Precautionary measures must be fully implemented.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Intensified Southwest (SW) Monsoon

which is locally induced by COSME & DINDO continues to affect Western

& Southern Luzon, Metro Manila, Palawan, Mindoro & Western Visayas

including Boracay Island Resort. The monsoon-affected areas will have

cloudy skies with moderate to heavy rains, thunderstorms & SW'ly winds

not exceeding 40 km/hr today. Landslides, mudflows (lahars) and floo-

ding is likely to occur along steep mountain/volcano slopes, river

banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas. Meanwhile,

big sea waves or surges generated by this monsoon can affect the coastal

and beach-front areas of the abovementioned areas. Meanwhile, the rest

of the Philippines is under the active ITCZ (Monsoon Trough), which

will bring scattered rains and thunderstorms most especially in the

afternoon or evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 16 MAY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 13.5º N...LONGITUDE 117.6º E
DISTANCE 1: 325 KM (175 NM) SW OF IBA, ZAMBALES, PH

DISTANCE 2: 325 KM (175 NM) SW OF SUBIC BAY, PH

DISTANCE 3: 355 KM (192 NM) WEST OF PUERTO GALERA, PH

DISTANCE 4: 385 KM (208 NM) WSW OF MANILA, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1000 MILLIBARS (hPa)
FORECAST MOVEMENT: NNE @ 09 KPH (05 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: ZAMBALES-LA UNION AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): ... KM (... NM)/N/A
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 13 FEET (3.9 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME FRI MAY 16
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: N/A

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - NORTHERN PALAWAN, OCCIDENTAL MINDORO & LUBANG ISLAND.

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 16 MAY: 14.4N 118.0E / 75-95 KPH / NE @ 13 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 17 MAY: 15.5N 118.9E / 85-100 KPH / NE @ 17 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 18 MAY: 18.2N 122.6E / 85-100 KPH / NE @ 31 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 19 MAY: 22.6N 127.9E / 100-130 KPH / NE @ 55 KPH

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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (08 GMT) 16 MAY: 13.7N 117.5E / N @ 07 KPH / 65 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.Org (http://www.digital-typhoon.org/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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