Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon RAMMASUN (BUTCHOY) to exit PAR today... [Update #004]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #004

Name: TYPHOON RAMMASUN [BUTCHOY/03W/0802]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) MON 12 MAY 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 019
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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AFTER REACHING SUPER TYPHOON STATUS YESTERDAY, TYPHOON RAMMASUN (BUTCHOY)
STARTS TO WEAKEN AS IT ACCELERATES NORTH-NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE PHILIPPINE
SEA...WILL EXIT THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR) THIS MORNING.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: RAMMASUN is forecast to continue accelerating NE'ly
within the next 2 days...dissipating continuously as it becomes an
Extratropical Cyclone on Tuesday evening or early Wednesday morning.

+ EFFECTS: None.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: The new Tropical Disturbance 95W (LPA/1007 MB)

forming over the central part of the South China Sea has remained quasi-

stationary...located about 615 km. West of Manila (14.0N 115.3E). This

disturbance has been forecast on almost all of the Numerical Global

Models to become a Tropical Cyclone within the next 2 to 4 days. Long-

range forecast shows it strengthening into a Tropical Storm in the next

5 days and may affect Western & NW Luzon this weekend of May 16-19.

Stay tuned for more info on this new potential threat.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Light to Moderate Southwest (SW) Monsoon
which is locally induced by RAMMASUN, continues to affect Western &
Southern Mindanao particularly Zamboanga, Western Visayas including

Palawan and Boracay Island. The monsoon-affected areas will have cloudy

skies with moderate to heavy rains, thunderstorms & SW'ly winds not
exceeding 35 km/hr today. Landslides, mudflows (lahars) and flooding
is likely to occur along steep mountain/volcano slopes, river banks,
low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas. Meanwhile, big
sea waves or surges generated by this monsoon can affect the coastal
and beach-front areas of the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 12 MAY
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 24.4º N...LONGITUDE 134.2º E
DISTANCE 1: 665 KM (360 NM) ESE OF OKINAWA, JAPAN

DISTANCE 2: 720 KM (388 NM) WEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN

DISTANCE 3: 1,015 KM (548 NM) SOUTH OF KOCHI, JAPAN

DISTANCE 4: 1,335 KM (720 NM) ENE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 175 KM/HR (95 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 215 KM/HR (115 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY TWO (2)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 952 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NNE @ 28 KM/HR (15 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 740 KM (400 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 27 FEET (8.2 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME MON MAY 12
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 48 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 12 MAY: 26.9N 136.1E / 150-185 KPH / NE @ 44 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 13 MAY: 30.5N 139.7E / 110-140 KPH / NE @ 45 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 14 MAY: 36.4N 149.2E / 55-75 KPH / NE @ 45 KPH
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 AM (18 GMT) 12 MAY: 23.6N 133.5E / NNE @ 26 KPH / 150 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.Org (http://www.digital-typhoon.org/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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