Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD 04W (NONAME)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #001

Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W [NONAME]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) WED 14 MAY 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 001
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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THE RAPIDLY-ITNENSIFYING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (LPA) NEAR THE COAST OF
AURORA HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (NONAME)...APPROA-
CHING THE EASTERN COAST OF NORTHERN LUZON.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: This system which developed from the eastern periphery

of a strong ITCZ (Monsoon Trough) is expected to turn sharply towards the

North later tonight. 04W shall become a Tropical Storm tomorrow afternoon

as it accelerates towards the northeast. The 3 to 4-day long range forecast

shows the system accelerating further towards the ENE, becoming Extratro-

pical Sunday afternoon.

+ EFFECTS: 04W's outer and inner rain bands continues to affect the Eastern

Coast of Northern & Central Luzon, bringing moderate to sometimes heavy

rains along with winds not exceeding 45 km/hr tonight. People living in

low-lying areas must seek higher grounds for possible flooding due to the

anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary

measures must be fully implemented.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: The broad & strong Tropical Disturbance 95W (LPA/

1002 MB) off the South China Sea has strengthened into Tropical Depression

COSME (95W). Click on the OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE on the main page for more

details on this other system.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Intensified Southwest (SW) Monsoon

which is locally induced by 04W & TD COSME is now affecting Western Visayas,

Mindoro, Central & Southern Luzon including Metro Manila and Bicol Region.

The monsoon-affected areas will have cloudy skies with moderate to heavy

rains, thunderstorms & SW'ly winds not exceeding 40 km/hr tonight and tomo-

rrow. Landslides, mudflows (lahars) and flooding is likely to occur along

steep mountain/volcano slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas

of the affected areas. Meanwhile, big sea waves or surges generated by this

monsoon can affect the coastal and beach-front areas of the abovementioned

areas. Meanwhile, the rest of the Philippines is under the active ITCZ

(Monsoon Trough), which will bring scattered rains and thunderstorms most

especially in the afternoon or evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 14 MAY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 16.7º N...LONGITUDE 123.6º E
DISTANCE 1: 170 KM (92 NM) ENE OF CASIGURAN, AURORA, PH

DISTANCE 2: 275 KM (148 NM) SE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 45 KM/HR (25 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 65 KM/HR (35 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1003 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 15 KM/HR (08 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: NORTHERN LUZON
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): ... KM (... NM)/N/A
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 12 FEET (3.6 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 PM MANILA TIME WED MAY 14
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 96 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 15 MAY: 17.7N 123.2E / 55-75 KPH / NNE @ 20 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 15 MAY: 19.7N 124.2E / 65-85 KPH / NE @ 30 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 16 MAY: 23.4N 130.3E / 85-100 KPH / ENE @ 33 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 17 MAY: 26.0N 137.8E / 65-85 KPH / E @ 33 KPH
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.Org (http://www.digital-typhoon.org/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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