Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD COSME (95W)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #002

Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME [95W]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) THU 15 MAY 2008
Source: JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY (JMA) TC WARNING [15/2100 GMT]
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME (95W) CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ORGANIZE OVER THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA OR NEAR THE NORTHWEST COAST OF PALAWAN ISLAND...STILL
BARELY MOVING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: COSME is expected to drift NE to NNE within the

next 2-3 days and intensify. Majority of the Global Forecast Models

continues to show the storm heading NNE to NE, passing across NW

Luzon near the City of Laoag this weekend. Stay tuned for more

updates on COSME's forecast track.

+ EFFECTS: COSME's elongated rain bands continues to affect the Wes-

tern Coast of Palawan, bringing moderate to sometimes heavy rains

along with winds not exceeding 55 km/hr tonight. People living in

low-lying areas must seek higher grounds for possible flooding due

to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Pre-

cautionary measures must be fully implemented.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Intensified Southwest (SW) Monsoon

which is locally induced by COSME & 04W continues to affect Palawan,

Mindoro & Western Visayas including Boracay Island Resort. The

monsoon-affected areas will have cloudy skies with moderate to heavy

rains, thunderstorms & SW'ly winds not exceeding 40 km/hr today.

Landslides, mudflows (lahars) and flooding is likely to occur along

steep mountain/volcano slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone

areas of the affected areas. Meanwhile, big sea waves or surges ge-

nerated by this monsoon can affect the coastal and beach-front areas

of the abovementioned areas. Meanwhile, the rest of the Philippines

is under the active ITCZ (Monsoon Trough), which will bring scattered

rains and thunderstorms most especially in the afternoon or evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 15 MAY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 11.8º N...LONGITUDE 116.8º E
DISTANCE 1: 370 KM (200 NM) WSW OF CORON, PALAWAN, PH

DISTANCE 2: 485 KM (262 NM) WSW OF PUERTO GALERA, PH

DISTANCE 3: 545 KM (295 NM) SW OF MANILA, PH

DISTANCE 4: 555 KM (300 NM) WEST OF BORACAY, PH

MAX WINDS [10-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 85 KM/HR (45 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1000 MILLIBARS (hPa)
FORECAST MOVEMENT: NNE @ 00 KM/HR (00 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTH CHINA SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): ... KM (... NM)/N/A
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 12 FEET (3.6 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 5 AM MANILA TIME THU MAY 15
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: N/A
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

24 HR. FORECAST:
5 AM (21 GMT) 16 MAY: 13.6N 118.0E / 65-95 KPH / NNE @ 05 KPH
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 AM (18 GMT) 15 MAY: 12.8N 117.5E / N @ 07 KPH / 55 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT JMA TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.Org (http://www.digital-typhoon.org/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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