Bushman's Typhoon Blog: HALONG (COSME) to become a Typhoon this PM... [Update #007]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #007

Name: TROPICAL STORM HALONG [COSME/05W/0804]

Issued: 1:00 PM MANILA TIME (05:00 GMT) SAT 17 MAY 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 007
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TROPICAL STORM HALONG (COSME) INTENSIFYING...EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TYPHOON THIS AFTERNOON...ENDANGERS NORTHERN ZAMBALES, PANGASINAN,
LA UNION, BENGUET AND ILOCOS PROVINCES.

Latest satellite visible & microwave imageries shows the system may have reached
Typhoon status - due to the formation of an EYE.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: HALONG is expected to become a Category 1 Typhoon

this afternoon as it passes very close to Lingayen Gulf. It shall make

landfall over La Union-Ilocos Sur border around 9 PM tonight, reaching

forecast peak intensity of 120 km/hr. It shall then cross Northern Luzon

late tonight until tomorrow, passing over the provinces of Abra, Kalinga,

Apaya0 and Northern Cagayan. HALONG shall exit Luzon, via Northern Caga-

yan tomorrow morning around 6 AM. The 2 to 5-day long range forecast

shows the storm passing close to the South of Okinawa, Japan by Monday

afternoon. By Tuesday morning, HALONG shall become Extratropical before

moving inland across Honshu, Japan passing east of Tokyo on Tuesday

evening, May 20th.

+ EFFECTS: HALONG's over-all circulation remained off the coast of

Zambales and has improved slightly as it nears Typhoon strength. Its

inner rain bands now spreading across the whole of Zambales & Northern

Pangasinan - bringing moderate to heavy rains w/ strong winds not

exceeding 100 km/hr today. Deteriorating weather conditions can be

expected late today along the Provinces of Zambales including Subic Bay,

Tarlac, La Union, Pangasinan & Benguet as HALONG approaches. Its outer

rain bands, on the other hand, has spread across the whole of Central

Luzon including the Western part of Metro Manila. These bands will con-

tinue to bring moderate to sometimes heavy rains & strong winds not ex-

ceeding 60 km/hr today. People living in low-lying areas must seek higher

grounds for possible flooding & landslides due to the anticipated heavy

rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be fully

implemented at this time. Coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5feet above

normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves can

be expected near and to the north of HALONG's projected path particularly

on where the center makes landfall in La Union-Ilocos Area. Minimal damage

is possible on this type of storm surge. Far-fetched storm surge is

possible along coastal areas of Western Philippines with surf reaching
2-3 feet at most.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Intensified Southwest (SW) Monsoon which

is locally induced by HALONG continues to affect Palawan, Western Visayas

including Boracay Island Resort & Southern Tagalog Provinces. The monsoon-

affected areas will have cloudy skies with light to moderate rains & SW'ly

winds not exceeding 40 km/hr today. Landslides, mudflows (lahars) and floo-

ding is likely to occur along steep mountain/volcano slopes, river banks,

low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas. Meanwhile, big sea

waves or surges generated by this monsoon can affect the coastal and beach-

front areas of the abovementioned areas. Meanwhile, the rest of the Phili-

ppines is under the active ITCZ (Monsoon Trough), which will bring sca-

ttered rains and thunderstorms most especially in the afternoon or

evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!

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EYEWALL PASSAGE FORECAST TIMES (EPFT):

+ Northern Zambales-Lingayen-Northern Pangasinan: 12PM until 6PM today.
+ La Union-Ilocos Sur: 4PM until 10PM today.
+ Abra-Kalinga-Apayao: 10PM today until 4AM tomorrow.

Note: The EyeWall - is the ring of rain clouds surrounding the "EYE" of a Typhoon. It is here where the
strongest winds and heaviest rain of a typhoon can be found. EPFT will show what local times on a given
area the most damaging winds and heaviest rainfall could be experienced. EPFT changes everytime a
new warning synopsis is issued. Important: This is only an estimate analysis, do not use this for life
or death decisions.
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TIME/DATE: 11:00 AM MANILA TIME (03:00 GMT) 17 MAY
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 15.5º N...LONGITUDE 119.1º E {SAT FIX}
DISTANCE 1: 100 KM (55 NM) WNW OF IBA, ZAMBALES, PH

DISTANCE 2: 140 KM (75 NM) WSW OF DAGUPAN CITY, PH

DISTANCE 3: 175 KM (95 NM) SW OF SAN FERNANDO, LA UNION, PH

DISTANCE 4: 190 KM (103 NM) SW OF BAGUIO CITY, PH

DISTANCE 5: 230 KM (125 NM) NW OF MANILA, PH

DISTANCE 6: 270 KM (147 NM) SSW OF VIGAN, ILOCOS SUR, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 130 KM/HR (70 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 982 MILLIBARS (hPa)
FORECAST MOVEMENT: NE @ 11 KPH (06 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: LINGAYEN-LA UNION-ILOCOS AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 740 KM (400 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 15 FEET (4.5 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 11 AM MANILA TIME SAT MAY 17
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 96 HOURS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#03 - ZAMBALES, PANGASINAN, LA UNION, ILOCOS PROVINCES.
#02 - BATAAN, PAMPANGA, TARLAC, NUEVA ECIJA, NUEVA VIZCAYA,
      BENGUET, IFUGAO, MT. PROVINCE, KALINGA, ABRA.
#01 - METRO MANILA, LUBANG IS., CAVITE, LAGUNA, RIZAL, BULACAN,
      NORTHERN QUEZON, AURORA, QUIRINO, ISABELA, CAGAYAN,
      APAYAO, BATANES.

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
8 PM (12 GMT) 17 MAY: 17.1N 120.2E / 120-150 KPH / NE @ 22 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 18 MAY: 18.8N 121.9E / 120-150 KPH / NE @ 26 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 19 MAY: 23.5N 127.3E / 110-140 KPH / NE @ 50 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 20 MAY: 31.8N 135.3E / 95-120 KPH / NNE @ 65 KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 17 MAY POSITION: 15.6N 118.9E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (HALONG) HAS STEADILY INTENSIFIED OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS UNDER THE FAVORABLE INFLUENCES OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLY HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. RECENT MICROWAVE SAT-
ELLITE IMAGERY, INCLUDING A 6:15 AM MAY 17 WINDSAT IMAGE, SHOW THE
RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL BANDING EYE FEATURE...(more)

>> HALONG {pronounced: ha~long}, meaning: A famous picturesque place
   in Viet Nam which was claimed heritage by UNESCO, lies in the Bacbo
   Gulf and consists of more than 1,000 isles, most of them are lime-
   stone islands. Name contributed by: Vietnam.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 10 AM (02 GMT) 17 MAY: 15.5N 118.8E / NE @ 19 KPH / 105 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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