Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon HALONG (COSME) lashes Northern Pangasinan... [Update #008]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #008

Name: TYPHOON HALONG [COSME/05W/0804]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) SAT 17 MAY 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 008
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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HALONG (COSME) BECOMES THE 3RD TYPHOON OF 2008...CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY

INTENSIFY AND IS NOW OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN PANGASINAN OR IN THE

VICINITY OF RENA POINT...EYE EXPECTED TO PARTIALLY MAKE LANDFALL ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIP OF PANGASINAN, PASSING JUST NORTH OF LINGAYEN GULF IN

THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE LATEST 4:30 PM DVORAK SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWED
1-MIN. AVERAGE WIND SPEED ESTIMATES OF 140-150 KM/HR (T4.5).

>> HALONG (COSME) could become the worst typhoon ever to hit the area since Typhoon
VICKI (GADING) of September 18-19, 1998. Click here to view image and track for its
similarities.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: HALONG's 30-km. Cloud-filled EYE is expected make

landfall over La Union-Ilocos Sur border around 10 PM tonight. It shall

then cross Northern Luzon late tonight until tomorrow, passing over the

provinces of Abra, Kalinga, Apayao and Northern Cagayan. HALONG shall

exit Luzon, via Northern Cagayan tomorrow morning around 8 AM. The 2 to

5-day long range forecast shows the storm passing close to the South of

Okinawa, Japan by Monday afternoon. By Tuesday morning, HALONG shall

become Extratropical prior in making its second landfall over Honshu,

Japan on Tuesday afternoon, May 20th.

+ EFFECTS: HALONG's strong circulation is now moving across the Northern

tip of Pangasinan. Its core and inner rain bands now spreading across

the whole of Zambales, Pangasinan, La Union, Benguet & Tarlac - bringing

moderate to heavy rains w/ typhoon-force winds exceeding 100 km/hr tonight.

Deteriorating weather conditions can be expected late tonight along the

Provinces of Pangasinan, La Union, Benguet & Ilocos Sur as HALONG makes

landfall. Its outer rain bands, on the other hand, continues to spread

across the whole of Northern & Central Luzon including Metro Manila. These

bands will continue to bring moderate to sometimes heavy rains & strong

winds not exceeding 60 km/hr tonight. People living in low-lying areas

must seek higher grounds for possible flooding & landslides due to the

anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary mea-

sures must be fully implemented at this time. Coastal Storm Surge floo-

ding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and

dangerous battering waves can be expected near and to the north of

HALONG's projected path particularly on where the center makes land-

fall in Northern Pangasinan-La Union-Ilocos Area. Minimal damage is

possible on this type of storm surge. Far-fetched storm surge is

possible along coastal areas of Western Philippines with surf

reaching 2-3 feet at most.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Intensified Southwest (SW) Monsoon which

is locally induced by HALONG continues to affect Palawan, Western

Visayas including Boracay Island Resort & Southern Tagalog Provinces.

The monsoon-affected areas will have cloudy skies with light to mo-

derate rains & SW'ly winds not exceeding 40 km/hr today. Landslides,

mudflows (lahars) and flooding is likely to occur along steep moun-

tain/volcano slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of

the affected areas. Meanwhile, big sea waves or surges generated by

this monsoon can affect the coastal and beach-front areas of the

abovementioned areas. Meanwhile, the rest of the Philippines is under

the active ITCZ (Monsoon Trough), which will bring scattered rains

and thunderstorms most especially in the afternoon or evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!

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EYEWALL PASSAGE FORECAST TIMES (EPFT):

+ Northern Zambales-Pangasinan: Ongoing until 10PM tonight.
+ La Union-Benguet-Ilocos Sur: 7PM tonight until 3AM tomorrow.
+ Abra-Kalinga-Apayao: 1AM until 7AM tomorrow.

Note: The EyeWall - is the ring of rain clouds surrounding the "EYE" of a Typhoon. It is here where the
strongest winds and heaviest rain of a typhoon can be found. EPFT will show what local times on a given
area the most damaging winds and heaviest rainfall could be experienced. EPFT changes everytime a
new warning synopsis is issued. Important: This is only an estimate analysis, do not use this for life
or death decisions.
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 17 MAY
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 16.1º N...LONGITUDE 119.6º E {SAT FIX}
DISTANCE 1: 75 KM (40 NM) WEST OF DAGUPAN CITY, PH

DISTANCE 2: 95 KM (50 NM) SW OF SAN FERNANDO, LA UNION, PH

DISTANCE 3: 100 KM (55 NM) NNW OF IBA, ZAMBALES, PH

DISTANCE 4: 110 KM (60 NM) WSW OF BAGUIO CITY, PH

DISTANCE 5: 185 KM (100 NM) SSW OF VIGAN CITY, PH

DISTANCE 6: 235 KM (127 NM) NW OF MANILA, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 140 KM/HR (75 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 165 KM/HR (90 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 965 MILLIBARS (hPa)
FORECAST MOVEMENT: NE @ 09 KPH (05 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: NORTHERN PANGASINAN-LA UNION AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 775 KM (420 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 17 FEET (5.1 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM MANILA TIME SAT MAY 17
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 96 HOURS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#03 - ZAMBALES, PANGASINAN, TARLAC, LA UNION, BENGUET & ILOCOS SUR.
#02 - BATAAN, BULACAN, PAMPANGA, NUEVA ECIJA, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO,
      IFUGAO, MT. PROVINCE, KALINGA, ABRA, APAYAO, ILOCOS NORTE.
#01 - METRO MANILA, LUBANG IS., BATANGAS, CAVITE, LAGUNA, RIZAL,
      NORTHERN QUEZON, ISABELA, CAGAYAN, CALAYAN IS., BABUYAN &
      BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS.

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 18 MAY: 17.7N 120.9E / 110-140 KPH / NE @ 22 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 18 MAY: 19.4N 122.7E / 120-150 KPH / NE @ 28 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 19 MAY: 24.6N 128.2E / 130-160 KPH / NNE @ 59 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 20 MAY: 34.5N 137.4E / 85-100 KPH / NNE @ 65 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 17 MAY POSITION: 15.9N 119.3E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (HALONG) HAS STEADILY INTENSIFIED OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS UNDER THE FAVORABLE INFLUENCES OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLY HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. RECENT MICROWAVE SAT-
ELLITE IMAGERY, INCLUDING A 6:15 AM MAY 17 WINDSAT IMAGE, SHOW THE
RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL BANDING EYE FEATURE...(more)

>> HALONG {pronounced: ha~long}, meaning: A famous picturesque place
   in Viet Nam which was claimed heritage by UNESCO, lies in the Bacbo
   Gulf and consists of more than 1,000 isles, most of them are lime-
   stone islands. Name contributed by: Vietnam.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 PM (08 GMT) 17 MAY: 16.0N 119.7E / NE @ 19 KPH / 105 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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