Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS HALONG (COSME) to exit PAR tonight... [Update #011]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #011

Name: TROPICAL STORM HALONG [COSME/05W/0804]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) MON 19 MAY 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 016
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TROPICAL STORM HALONG (COSME) SPEEDING UP NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE

PHILIPPINE SEA AND INTO THE DEEP NORTHWEST PACIFIC BASIN...EXPECTED TO

EXIT THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR) TONIGHT.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: HALONG is expected to become an Extratropical Cyclone
while passing to the south of Tokyo, Japan tomorrow afternoon.

+ EFFECTS: HALONG's over-all circulation remains over the Philippine Sea
and is no longer affecting any areas of the Philippines. All Philippine
storm warning signals now lifted.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Intensified Southwest (SW) Monsoon which is

locally induced by HALONG has weakened and is no longer affecting the

Western portions of the Philippines. Meanwhile, the rest of the

Philippines remains under the ITCZ (Monsoon Trough), which will

continue to bring scattered rains and thunderstorms - most

especially in the afternoon or evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 19 MAY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 23.0º N...LONGITUDE 129.9º E
DISTANCE 1: 435 KM (235 NM) SE OF OKINAWA, JAPAN

DISTANCE 2: 870 KM (470 NM) ENE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 130 KM/HR (70 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 982 MILLIBARS (hPa)
FORECAST MOVEMENT: NE @ 33 KPH (18 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTHERN COAST OF JAPAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 590 KM (320 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 17 FEET (5.1 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 PM MANILA TIME MON MAY 19
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 48 HOURS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

12, 24, 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 20 MAY: 25.9N 133.3E / 100-130 KPH / NE @ 63 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 20 MAY: 30.4N 139.0E / 95-120 KPH / NE @ 66 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 21 MAY: 40.6N 151.4E / 65-85 KPH / NE @ 66 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 19 MAY POSITION: 22.1N 128.7E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY AFTER
TRACKING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTH CENTRAL LUZON AND THEN
RE-EMERGING OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS.
DEEP CONVECTION INCREASED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER,
BUT HAS RECENTLY BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED TO THE EAST. FAV-
ORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS ALLOWED TS 05W TO REMAIN AT 45 KNOTS
AND HAS OFFSET THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF INCREASED SHEAR. TS 05W
HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...(more)

>> HALONG {pronounced: ha~long}, meaning: A famous picturesque place
   in Viet Nam which was claimed heritage by UNESCO, lies in the Bacbo
   Gulf and consists of more than 1,000 isles, most of them are lime-
   stone islands. Name contributed by: Vietnam.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 10 PM (02 GMT) 19 MAY: 21.6N 127.9E / NE @ 33 KPH / 95 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS HALONG (COSME/05W)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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