Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS HALONG (COSME) intensfying rapidly..heads for Western Luzon... [Update #005]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #005

Name: TROPICAL STORM HALONG [COSME/05W/0804]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) FRI 16 MAY 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 004
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TROPICAL STORM HALONG (COSME) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W...
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING WHILE REMAINING STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA...FORECAST TO STRIKE NORTHERN PANGASINAN-LA UNION AREA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...MORE AREAS UNDER STORM SIGNAL NUMBER
ONE HOISTED.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: HALONG is expected to continue intensifying as it
moves closer to Lingayen Gulf. It shall pass over Northern Pangasinan

and Lingayen Gulf around noon tomorrow (Saturday), reaching its fore-

cast peak intensity of 85 km/hr. The 2 to 5-day long range forecast

shows the storm making landfall over La Union province late tomorrow

afternoon and cross Northern Luzon in the evening (Saturday). It shall

then exit out into the Philippine Sea via Northern Cagayan before

sunrise on Sunday (May 18). By Sunday afternoon, HALONG shall reach

its peak intensity of 95 km/hr - while moving south of Okinawa Island.

The system shall transform into an Extratropical Cyclone before passing

very close to Tokyo by Tuesday evening, May 20th.

+ EFFECTS: HALONG's rapidly-improving circulation continues to swirl

over the South China Sea. Its inner rain bands is now spreading along

the coastal areas of Western luzon (from Lingayen Gulf, Zambales,

Bataan, down to Manila Bay, Batangas & Lubang Island). Moderate to

heavy rains with strong winds of 60-75 km/hr can be expected along the

inner bands tonight until tomorrow. While, its outer rain bands is now

spreading across the whole of Luzon, including Metro Manila, Mindoro &

Northern Bicol. These bands are expected to bring passing moderate to

sometimes heavy rains along with winds not exceeding 60 km/hr can be

expected tonight until tomorrow. Deteriorating weather conditions can

be expected later tonight over the threatened areas of Western Luzon

as the storm continues to intensify while moving closer to the area.

People living in low-lying areas must seek higher grounds for possible

flooding due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this

system. Precautionary measures must be fully implemented at this

time.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Intensified Southwest (SW) Monsoon

which is locally induced by HALONG & MATMO continues to affect Pala-

wan, Western Visayas & Western Mindanao including Boracay Island Resort.

The monsoon-affected areas will have cloudy skies with moderate to heavy

rains, thunderstorms & SW'ly winds not exceeding 40 km/hr today. Land-

slides, mudflows (lahars) and flooding is likely to occur along steep

mountain/volcano slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of

the affected areas. Meanwhile, big sea waves or surges generated by

this monsoon can affect the coastal and beach-front areas of the above-

mentioned areas. Meanwhile, the rest of the Philippines is under the

active ITCZ (Monsoon Trough), which will bring scattered rains and

thunderstorms most especially in the afternoon or evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 16 MAY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 14.5º N...LONGITUDE 117.9º E
DISTANCE 1: 245 KM (132 NM) WSW OF IBA, ZAMBALES, PH

DISTANCE 2: 260 KM (140 NM) WEST OF SUBIC BAY, ZAMBALES, PH

DISTANCE 3: 300 KM (162 NM) WSW OF CLARK FIELD, PAMPANGA, PH

DISTANCE 4: 305 KM (165 NM) SW OF DAGUPAN CITY, PH

DISTANCE 5: 335 KM (180 NM) WEST OF MANILA, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 95 KM/HR (50 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 993 MILLIBARS (hPa)
FORECAST MOVEMENT: NORTH @ 13 KPH (07 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: NORTHERN PANGASINAN-LA UNION AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 665 KM (360 NM)/AVERAGE/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 13 FEET (3.9 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 PM MANILA TIME FRI MAY 16
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HOURS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - BATAAN, BULACAN, TARLAC, PAMPANGA, ZAMBALES, NUEVA ECIJA,
PANGASINAN, NUEVA VIZCAYA, IFUGAO, BENGUET, KALINGA, MT.

PROVINCE, ABRA, LA UNION & ILOCOS SUR.

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 17 MAY: 15.1N 118.5E / 85-100 KPH / NE @ 19 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 17 MAY: 16.4N 120.0E / 85-100 KPH / NE @ 22 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 18 MAY: 19.7N 124.4E / 95-120 KPH / NE @ 39 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 19 MAY: 25.6N 131.0E / 95-120 KPH / NE @ 48 KPH
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 PM (08 GMT) 16 MAY: 14.7N 117.8E / NE @ 09 KPH / 75 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.Org (http://www.digital-typhoon.org/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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