Tuesday, August 07, 2007

TS PABUK (CHEDENG) - Update #04


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #004
Name: TROPICAL STORM PABUK [CHEDENG/07W/0706] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) TUE 07 AUGUST 2007
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) TUE 07 AUGUST
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #007
_______________________________________________________________________
 
 
TROPICAL STORM PABUK (CHEDENG) CONTINUES TO MOVE ON A WESTERLY
PATH TOWARDS TAIWAN...GAINED MORE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS TYPHOON
STATUS.

Meanwhile, the other circulation to the SSE of PABUK or over
the Philippine Sea - is now an active Tropical Disturbance
(LPA/90W/1002 MB)
and has been drifting Westward during the
past 6 hours. It was located near 14.4N 128.4E, or about
450 km. ENE of Virac, Catanduanes or 785 km. East of Metro
Manila
. This disturbance is located on the southern edge of
an active Monsoon Trough (aka. ITCZ) which extends Eastward
from TD 06W (over the Gulf of Tonkin, near Hainan Is.), TS
PABUK and up to the Southern Marianas-Chuuk Area. Latest
analysis continues to show increasing convergence & vorticity
over this circulation. If continued development occurs, we
might see another Tropical Cyclone within the week. This
disturbance is now confirmed on all the asian agencies
advisories (JMA, US NAVY & PAGASA).


+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: PABUK is expected to continue moving WNW
in the direction of Taiwan, becoming a 120-km/hr Typhoon to-
night. The 24 to 72-hour forecast shows PABUK making landfall
over Taiwan early tomorrow morning, Aug 08 (approx 4 AM HK
Time) and shall cross the mountainous terrain of the island
nation, passing some 95 km. to the South of Taipei around 7
AM HK Time. This potential typhoon shall move back to sea
(over Taiwan Strait) as a weakened system and make its last
and final landfall over Eastern China, in between the cities
of Xiamen & Fuzhou tomorrow evening, Aug 08. It shall then
continue tracking WNW across Mainland China and dissipate
around early Friday morning, Aug 10


+ EFFECTS: PABUK's circulation, located along the Northern
edge of the Monsoon Trough (ITCZ), has become more compact
and is likely to detached from the trough as it continues
to consolidate. As of the moment, only the various shipping
lines is affected by this storm. Its Outer Bands are expected
to reach Taiwan tonight. Passing light to moderate rains and
winds can be expected upon the approach of these bands.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest (SW) Monsoon con-
tinues to be enhanced by PABUK and the Tropical Disturbance
(LPA) to the East of Northern Bicol Region...Cloudy skies
with intermittent passing rains or thunderstorms with SW'ly
winds of 15 km/hr or higher can be expected along the western
sections of Southern Luzon (including Bicol Region), Visayas
& Mindanao. This monsoon system may reach Northern & Central
Luzon tomorrow or Thursday. Meanwhile, scattered rainclouds
with isolated thunderstorms will continue to prevail across
most of Luzon including Metro Manila - bringing light to mo-
derate to sometimes heavy rains. Mudslides and flooding is
likely along river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of
the affected areas. Stay tuned for more Monsoon updates on
the next advisory
.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: Refer to TD 06W for more up-
dates.


Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 07 AUGUST
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 22.0º N...LONGITUDE 126.7º E
DISTANCE 1: 515 KM (278
NM) SSW OF OKINAWA, JAPAN
DISTANCE 2: 520 KM (280 NM) ENE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH
DISTANCE 3: 665 KM (360 NM) NE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH
DISTANCE 4: 610 KM (330 NM) SE OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 130 KM/HR (70 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 982 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 22 KM/HR (12 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: TAIWAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 445 KM (240 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 18 FEET (5.4 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME AUGUST 07
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 72 HRS LEAD
  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 07 AUGUST: 22.6N 124.5E / 110-140 KPH / NW @ 24 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 08 AUGUST: 24.0N 122.2E / 120-150 KPH / WNW @ 19 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 09 AUGUST: 25.3N 118.5E / 65-85 KPH / NW @ 11 KPH


REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 07 AUGUST POSITION: 21.8N 127.5E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (PABUK) HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
HAS CONTINUES TO REMAIN UNDER THE CENTRAL FLARING CONVECTION.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOW THE LLCC UNDER THE CENTRAL CONVECTION, WHILE A MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER OF THE LLCC,
WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER..
.(more)

>> PABUK {pronounced: pa~book}, meaning: Big fresh water fish. 
  
Name contributed by: Lao PDR.

_______________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 07 AUGUST: 22.0N 127.5E / WNW @ 19 KPH / 100 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website 
   at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_______________________________________________________________________


RECENT TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS PABUK (CHEDENG)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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