Sunday, August 05, 2007

TD 06W - Update #05

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #005 
Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W [UNNAMED] 
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) SUN 05 AUGUST 2007
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) MON 06 AUGUST
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #011
_______________________________________________________________________
  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (UNNAMED) NOW MAKING LANDFALL ALONG
THE COAST OF CENTRAL VIETNAM...LIKELY TO WEAKEN FURTHER.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: 06W is expected to continue moving NW
passing over Central Vietnam in the next 3 days, and
dissipate. 

+ EFFECTS: 06W's circulation has become disorganized and
still spreading across Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam &
portions of Hainan Island. The weak convective outer bands
will continue to bring scattered moderate to heavy rains
over the area, most especially Central Vietnam. Flash
floods and mudslides are imminent along river banks, low-
lying and mountainous areas of the affected areas of
IndoChina. Precautionary measures must be implemented on
the possible effects of this depression.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: The strong Tropical Disturbance
(98W/LPA/1005 MB) over the Pacific Ocean is now Tropical
Storm PABUK (Chedeng), accelerating WNW into the Northern
Philippine Sea. Separate email updates will be issued
on this newly-formed storm.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!
_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 05 AUGUST
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 14.4º N...LONGITUDE 109.2º E
DISTANCE 1: 235 KM (127 NM) NORTH OF NHA TRANG, VIETNAM
DISTANCE 2: 215 KM (115 NM) SSE OF DA NANG, VIETNAM
DISTANCE 3: 425 KM (230 NM) SSW OF SANYA, HAINAN IS.
DISTANCE 4: 1,270 KM (685 NM) WEST OF METRO MANILA, PH
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1000 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 04 KM/HR (02 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: VIETNAM
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 400 KM (215 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 13 FEET (3.9 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 PM HKT SUN AUGUST 05
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 72 HRS LEAD  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 06 AUGUST: 14.9N 109.0E / 45-65 KPH / NW @ 07 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 06 AUGUST: 15.7N 108.7E / 45-65 KPH / NW @ 09 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 07 AUGUST: 16.8N 107.2E / 35-55 KPH / NW @ 07 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 05 AUGUST POSITION: 14.3N 109.3E.
^THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS THE PRIMARY (ALBEIT
WEAK) STEERING INFLUENCE FOR TD 06W. THE FORECAST CONTINUES
TO CALL FOR THE STORM TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL
AFTER 12 HOURS. THE STORM WILL HUG THE COAST THROUGH 36 HOURS,
BEFORE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE NEAR 48 HOURS. THE ADDITION OF
THE JAPANESE AIDS HAS BROUGHT FURTHER EAST, BACK OVER WATER.
WERE THIS TO OCCUR, THE STORM COULD POTENTIALLY MAINTAIN
LONGER AS TD. HOWEVER, IF TD 06W MOVES FURTHER INLAND THAN
FORECAST, IT MAY DISSIPATE PRIOR TO 72 HOURS. OVERALL, THE
MODELS HAVE HAD A VERY POOR HANDLE ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE
STORM, AND THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT REMAINS UNCLEAR. THERE-
FORE, A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE
FORECAST...(more info)

_______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________

RECENT TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________
 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh...noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TD 06W (UNNAMED)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm
   

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Posted by MJ Klein at 18:51

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