Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS RUMBIA (GORIO) Update #008

for Sunday, 30 June 2013 [1:27 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM RUMBIA (GORIO) UPDATE NUMBER 008
Issued: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Sunday 30 June 2013
Next Update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Sunday 30 June 2013

Tropical Storm RUMBIA (GORIO) moving faster across the West Philippine Sea, away from Luzon. Gradual improvement of the weather expected today.

This storm will locally enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) and bring windy/cloudy conditions with occasionally slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across Palawan today.

Residents and visitors along Southern China particularly Western Guangdong and Hainan Island should closely monitor the development of RUMBIA (GORIO).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 12:00 noon today, the center of TS Rumbia (Gorio) was located over West Philippine Sea...about 163 km west-northwest of Subic Bay or 240 km west-northwest of Metro Manila...currently moving west-northwest with an accelerated forward speed of 30 km/hr in the general direction of the West Philippine Sea.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remained at 75 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. A WeatherPhilippines/Meteomedia Automated Weather Station (AWS) based in Mamburao, Occidental Mindoro has recorded 142.0 millimeters (mm) of rainfall in a span of 24 hours, which is considered heavy. Rumbia (Gorio) remains an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 335 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Rumbia (Gorio) is estimated to be extreme (400 mm).

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TS Rumbia (Gorio) is expected to move northwestward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Rumbia (Gorio) will continue to move across the West Philippine Sea this afternoon and exit the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) early Monday morning. Rumbia will then be moving across the South China Sea throughout Monday...and will make its final landfall over Western Guangdong in Southern China on Tuesday morning.

Rumbia (Gorio) is forecast to gain more strength as it moves across the West Philippine and South China Seas within the next 12 to 36 hours.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:

MONDAY NOON: Strengthening over the South China Sea, outside of the PAR...about 423 km South of Hong Kong [12PM JULY 01: 18.4N 114.1E @ 100kph].
TUESDAY NOON: Making landfall and moving over land across Western Guangdong (Southern China)...about 90 km north of Zhanjiang City, China [12PM JULY 02: 22.1N 110.6E @ 85kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - spreading across the West Philippine Sea. Affected Areas: Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-95 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading across Western Luzon. Affected Areas: Zambales, Bataan, Pangasinan, Western Batangas, Lubang Island, Mindoro Provinces, & Calamian Group of Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 400 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas to the west, north and near the center of Rumbia (Gorio).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 12:00 NN PhT Sun June 30, 2013
Class/Name: TS Rumbia (Gorio)
Location of Center: 15.0º N Lat 118.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 133 km WSW of Iba, Zambales
Distance 2: 163 km WNW of Subic Bay
Distance 3: 180 km SW of Cape Bolinao
Distance 4: 194 km W of Clark Intl. Airport
Distance 5: 216 km WNW of Malolos City
Distance 6: 240 km WNW of Metro Manila
Distance 7: 247 km WNW of Tagaytay City
Distance 8: 945 km SSE of Hong Kong
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph
Present Movement: WNW @ 30 kph
Towards: West Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [400 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 335 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 6 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft (0 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS RUMBIA (GORIO)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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