Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS RUMBIA (GORIO) Update #007

for Sunday, 30 June 2013 [7:31 AM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM RUMBIA (GORIO) UPDATE NUMBER 007
Issued: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Sunday 30 June 2013
Next Update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Sunday 30 June 2013

Tropical Storm RUMBIA (GORIO) is now over Corregidor Island after it accelerated to the west-northwest...passing across the provinces of Laguna, Batangas and Cavite early this morning. Stormy weather will continue to prevail across Metro Manila and nearby areas.

This storm will locally enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) and bring windy/cloudy conditions with occasionally slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across Palawan today.

Residents and visitors along Southern China particularly Western Guangdong and Hainan Island should closely monitor the development of RUMBIA (GORIO).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 6:00 am today, the center of TS Rumbia (Gorio) was located over Corregidor Island or over the westernmost part of Manila Bay...about 58 km west-southwest of Metro Manila or 49 km west-northwest of Tagaytay City...currently moving west-northwest with an accelerated forward speed of 28 km/hr in the general direction of the West Philippine Sea.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remained at 75 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. A WeatherPhilippines/Meteomedia Automated Weather Station (AWS) based in Naval, Biliran Island has recorded 144.8 millimeters (mm) of rainfall in a span of 24 hours, which is considered heavy. Rumbia (Gorio) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 335 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Rumbia (Gorio) is estimated to be heavy (200 mm).

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TS Rumbia (Gorio) is expected to resume moving northwesterly throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Rumbia (Gorio) will move across the West Philippine Sea this afternoon and exit the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by early Monday morning. Rumbia will then be moving across the South China Sea throughout Monday...and will make its final landfall over Western Guangdong in Southern China on Tuesday morning.

Rumbia (Gorio) is forecast to gain more strength as it moves across the West Philippine Sea and South China Sea within the next 12 to 36 hours.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:

MONDAY MORNING: Over the South China Sea, outside of the PAR...about 481 km SSE of Hong Kong [6AM JULY 01: 18.1N 115.3E @ 95kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: Making landfall along the coast of Western Guangdong (Southern China)...about 117 km east-northeast of Zhanjiang City, China [6AM JULY 02: 21.8N 111.5E @ 85kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - spreading across National Capital Region & Southern Tagalog Provinces. Affected Areas: Metro Manila, Bataan, Bulacan, Rizal, Pampanga, Tarlac, Southern Zambales, Cavite, Laguna, Occidental Mindoro, Lubang Island, and Batangas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-95 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading across West Philippine Sea, Central Philippines. Affected Areas: Bicol Region, Northern & Central Luzon, Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, Marinduque, Northwestern Visayas, Northern Palawan & Calamian Group of Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 50 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 51 to 200 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas to the west, north and near the center of Rumbia (Gorio).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Sun June 30, 2013
Class/Name: TS Rumbia (Gorio)
Location of Center: 14.3º N Lat 120.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 49 km WNW of Tagaytay City
Distance 2: 58 km WSW of Metro Manila
Distance 3: 60 km SSW of Subic Bay
Distance 4: 64 km NNE of Lubang Island
Distance 5: 64 km SSW of Malolos City
Distance 6: 77 km NNW of Batangas City
Distance 7: 99 km NNW of Puerto Galera
Distance 8: 101 km S of Clark Intl. Airport
Distance 9: 117 km WNW of Lucena City
Distance 10: 302 km WNW of Metro Naga
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph
Present Movement: WNW @ 28 kph
Towards: West Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [200 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 335 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft (0 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS RUMBIA (GORIO)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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