Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD 05W (FABIAN) Update #003

for Thursday, 20 June 2013 [9:00 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FABIAN) UPDATE NUMBER 003
Issued: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Friday 21 June 2013
Next Update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Friday 21 June 2013

Tropical Depression 05W (FABIAN) has slightly intensified as it moved out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) toward Southwestern China.

This depression will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) and bring windy/cloudy conditions with occasionally slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across MiMaRoPa and the coastal areas of Western Luzon today. Improving weather will be expected on Saturday and Sunday.

Residents and visitors along Southwestern China and Hainan Island should closely monitor the development of 05W (FABIAN).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 6:00 am today, the center of TD 05W (Fabian) was located over the South China Sea...about 394 km west-northwest of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur or 535 km southeast of Hong Kong...currently moving northwest with an increased forward speed of 22 km/hr in the general direction of Southwestern China.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 55 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of 94W (Fabian) is estimated to be heavy (300 mm).

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TD 05W (Fabian) is expected to move northwest throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of 05W (Fabian) will remain over the South China Sea until Saturday evening...and will approach the southwestern coast of China by Saturday evening, making landfall over or very near Zhanjiang City in Western Guangdong on Sunday morning.

05W (Fabian) is forecast to gain strength during the next 24 hours...and could become a Tropical Storm (TS) later today.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:

SATURDAY MORNING: Gains strength as it moves closer to Western Guangdong...about 258 km south of Hong Kong [6AM JUNE 22: 19.9N 113.9E @ 75kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Just along the shores of Western Guangdong...about 11 km south of Zhanjiang City, China [6AM JUNE 23: 21.2N 110.5E @ 75kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - spreading across the West Philippine & South China Seas. Affected Areas: None. Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-63 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 300 mm (heavy) along areas to the south and near the center of 05W (Fabian).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Fri June 21, 2013
Class/Name: TD 05W (Fabian)
Location of Center: 18.0º N Lat 116.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 380 km NW of Cape Bolinao, Pangasinan
Distance 2: 394 km WNW of Vigan City
Distance 3: 413 km WSW of Laoag City
Distance 4: 412 km NW of San Fernando City
Distance 5: 535 km SE of Hong Kong
Distance 6: 568 km SE of Macau
Distance 7: 603 km NW of Metro Manila
Distance 8: 667 km ESE of Qionghai, Hainan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph
Present Movement: NW @ 22 kph
Towards: Southwestern China
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [300 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft (0 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TD 05W (FABIAN)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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