Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #005
Name: TYPHOON KROSA [INENG/17W/0715]
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) THU 04 OCTOBER 2007
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) THU 04 OCTOBER
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 010
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) THU 04 OCTOBER
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 010
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
TYPHOON KROSA (INENG) ALMOST A SUPER TYPHOON AS IT CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY
GAIN
STRENGTH OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...AIMING FOR TAIWAN ON A NORTHWESTTRACK...THREAT TO EXTREME NORTHERN LUZON REMAINS.
+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: KROSA is expected to continue moving NW'ly towards
+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: KROSA is expected to continue moving NW'ly towards
Northern Taiwan throughout the weekend. The 3 to 5-day forecast shows
KROSA becoming an extremely catastrophic Category 5 Super Typhoon with
winds reaching 260 km/hr tomorrow morning, Oct 05. The eye shall reach
the northeastern coast of Taiwan Sunday morning with a sudden slow in
its NW track. It shall pass very close to Taipei, Taiwan Sunday after-
noon, Oct 7 (approx 3 PM HK Time), with a close distance of 55 km to
the east. Upon its closest approach to Taiwan, KROSA shall be downgra-
ded to a Category 4 (220 kph) Typhoon and shall continue losing strength
as it bears down the coast of SE China on Monday & Tuesday (Oct 8-9)
due to land interaction, increasing wind shear and dry air over
mainland China.
+ EFFECTS: KROSA is not affecting any part of the Philippines or nearby
+ EFFECTS: KROSA is not affecting any part of the Philippines or nearby
Pacific Islands. Its main circulation remains over the Northern part of
the Philippine Sea, affecting only the shipping lanes. Far-fetched storm
surge is possible along the eastern coastal stretch of Taiwan and the
Philippines. Coastal Storm Surge flooding of 13 to 18 feet above normal
tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves can be
expected near and to the north of KROSA's projected path. Extreme
damage is possible on this type of storm surge.
+ CURRENT ITCZ/MONSOON INTENSITY: Weak Southwest (SW)Monsoon enhanced by
Typhoon KROSA (INENG) - will continue to bring mostly cloudy skies with
+ CURRENT ITCZ/MONSOON INTENSITY: Weak Southwest (SW)Monsoon enhanced by
Typhoon KROSA (INENG) - will continue to bring mostly cloudy skies with
possible intermittent afternoon or evening rainfall & SW'ly winds of 10
km/hr or higher across Western Philippines becoming more frequent over
Mindoro & Lubang Island. Landslides and flooding is likely to occur along
steep mountain slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the
affected areas, while big sea waves or surges generated by this monsoon
can affect the coastal and beach-front areas of Western Visayas and Wes-
tern Luzon. Meanwhile, the rest of the Philippines is under the ITCZ
(Monsoon Trough), which will bring scattered rains and thunderstorms
most especially in the afternoon or evening.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
_____________________________________________________________________________
TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 04 OCTOBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 18.6º N...LONGITUDE 128.5º E
DISTANCE 1: 725 KM (390 NM) ENE OF TUGUEGARAO CITY, PH
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
____________
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 18.6º N...LONGITUDE 128.5º E
DISTANCE 1: 725 KM (390 NM) ENE OF TUGUEGARAO CITY, PH
DISTANCE 2: 715 KM (385 NM) EAST OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH
DISTANCE 3: 715 KM (385 NM) ESE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH
DISTANCE 4: 915 KM (495 NM) NE OF METRO MANILA, PH
DISTANCE 5: 1,005 KM (542 NM) SE OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 270 KM/HR (145 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY FOUR (4)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 933 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 15 KM/HR (08 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: TAIWAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 1,240 KM (670 NM)/VERY LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 31 FEET (9.4 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME THU OCTOBER 04
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 04 OCTOBER: 19.6N 127.5E / 240-295 KPH / NW @ 15 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 05 OCTOBER: 20.7N 126.2E / 260-315 KPH / NW @ 11 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 06 OCTOBER: 22.5N 124.3E / 260-315 KPH / NW @ 11 KPH
REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 04 OCTOBER POSITION: 18.3N 128.8E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 17W (KROSA) HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. 17W HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE FEATURE EVIDENT ON INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE STORM HAS TRACKED MAINLY WESTWARD OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS, AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM HAS TAKEN OVER AS THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. THE STORM
HAS ALSO INCREASED TRACK SPEED OVER THE LAST 06 HOURS AND MOVED OVER
WATERS WITH MORE FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THIS, ALONG WITH THE
CONTINUATION OF GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND DIURNAL MAXIMUM, LED TO
A SIGNIFICANT JUMP IN INTENSITY OVER THE LAST 06 HOURS...(more)
>> KROSA {pronounced: kro~saah}, meaning: Crane.
Name contributed by: Cambodia.
_____________________________________________________________________________
PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 04 OCTOBER POSITION: 18.3N 128.8E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 17W (KROSA) HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. 17W HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE FEATURE EVIDENT ON INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE STORM HAS TRACKED MAINLY WESTWARD OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS, AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM HAS TAKEN OVER AS THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. THE STORM
HAS ALSO INCREASED TRACK SPEED OVER THE LAST 06 HOURS AND MOVED OVER
WATERS WITH MORE FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THIS, ALONG WITH THE
CONTINUATION OF GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND DIURNAL MAXIMUM, LED TO
A SIGNIFICANT JUMP IN INTENSITY OVER THE LAST 06 HOURS...(more)
>> KROSA {pronounced: kro~saah}, meaning: Crane.
Name contributed by: Cambodia.
____________
PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 04 OCTOBER: 18.3N 128.8E / NW @ 13 KPH / 160 kph
:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.
_____________________________________________________________________________
RECENT TRACKING CHART:
RECENT TRACKING CHART:
________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org )
__________________________________________________________________________________________
NOTES:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.
^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.
latest warning.
* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
# 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
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__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY KROSA (INENG)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
# 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
visit: http://www.typhoon2
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
its center.
____________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.
http://www.nhc.
http://www.srh.
http://www.srh.
http://www.nhc.
____________
:: Typhoon2000.
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
For the complete details on TY KROSA (INENG)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2
> http://www.maybagyo
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