Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon KROSA (INENG) now drifting Westward... [Update #003]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #003

Name: TYPHOON KROSA [INENG/17W/0715]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) WED 03 OCTOBER 2007
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) WED 03 OCTOBER
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 006
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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KROSA (INENG) BECOMES THE 11TH TYPHOON

OF 2007...NOW DRIFTING WEST-

WARD ACROSS THE WARM PHILIPPINE SEA...MAY THREATEN EXTREME NORTHERN

LUZON AND TAIWAN THIS WEEKEND.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: INENG is expected to accelerate WNW within the next

24 hours, turning more to the NW later. The 3 to 5-day forecast shows

INENG becoming an extremely dangerous Category 4 Typhoon with winds

reaching 215 km/hr by early Saturday morning, Oct 06. INENG shall reach

Yaeyama Islands early Sunday morning with a sudden slow in its NW track.

The eye shall be about 220 km. East of Taipei, Taiwan early Monday mor-

ning, Oct 8 (approx 2 AM HK Time).

+ EFFECTS: KROSA's main circulation has shrunked a little and remains

over the Northern part of the Philippine Sea and will continue to affect

the shipping lanes. Far-fetched storm surge is possible along the eas-

tern coastal stretch of Luzon and Visayas. Coastal Storm Surge flooding

of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous

battering waves can be expected near and to the north of KROSA's projec-

ted path. Minimal damage is possible on this type of storm surge.

+ CURRENT ITCZ/MONSOON INTENSITY: Weak to moderate Southwest (SW)

Monsoon enhanced by Typhoon KROSA (INENG) - will continue to bring

mostly cloudy skies with intermittent rainfall & SW'ly winds of 10

km/hr or higher across Western Philippines becoming more frequent over

Mindoro, Lubang Island, Western Visayas & Northern Palawan. Landslides

and flooding is likely to occur along steep mountain slopes, river banks,

low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas, while big sea waves

or surges generated by this monsoon can affect the coastal and beach-

front areas of Western Visayas and Western Luzon. Meanwhile, the rest

of the Philippines is under the active ITCZ, which will bring scattered

rains and thunderstorms most especially in the afternoon or evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 03 OCTOBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 17.1º N...LONGITUDE 130.6º E
DISTANCE 1: 910 KM (490 NM) ENE OF CASIGURAN, AURORA, PH

DISTANCE 2: 945 KM (510 NM) ESE OF TUGUEGARAO CITY, PH

DISTANCE 3: 955 KM (515 NM) ESE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH

DISTANCE 4: 980 KM (530 NM) SE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH

DISTANCE 5: 1,055 KM (570 NM) NE OF METRO MANILA, PH

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 140 KM/HR (75 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 165 KM/HR (90 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 967 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 05 KM/HR (03 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: BATANES-TAIWAN AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 835 KM (450 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 24 FEET (7.3 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME WED OCTOBER 03
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 03 OCTOBER: 17.5N 130.0E / 160-195 KPH / NW @ 11 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 04 OCTOBER: 18.2N 128.9E / 175-215 KPH / NW @ 13 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 05 OCTOBER: 20.2N 126.9E / 205-240 KPH / NW @ 11 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 03 OCTOBER POSITION: 16.9N 130.8E.
^TYPHOON (TY) KROSA HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN INTO A

TYPHOON OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING

HAS BECOME MORE TIGHTLY WRAPPED INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER

(LLCC). PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE WAS ERRATIC BUT IN GENERAL SUPPORTED

A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THIS IS DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE WEAK STEERING

ENVIRONMENT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN UPPER-

LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS PERSISTED OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER ALONG WITH

GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE UPPER LOW EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE

SYSTEM. UNTIL THE LAST 06 HOURS THE SYSTEM WAS QUASI-STATIONARY...(more)

>> KROSA {pronounced: kro~saah}, meaning: Crane.
Name contributed by: Cambodia.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 AM (18 GMT) 03 OCTOBER: 17.0N 130.8E / NW @ 07 KPH / 100 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY KROSA (INENG)...go visit
our website @:

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> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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