Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Super Typhoon KROSA (INENG)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #008

Name: SUPER TYPHOON KROSA [INENG/17W/0715]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) FRI 05 OCTOBER 2007
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) SAT 06 OCTOBER
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 016
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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KROSA (INENG) BECOMES THE FOURTH SUPER TYPHOON

OF 2007...JOGGED TOWARDS

THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...ENDANGERS TAIWAN...RAINBANDS AFFECTING NORTHERN

LUZON.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: KROSA is likely to have reached its peak strength

and will maintain being a Super Typhoon for the next 12 hours and shall

begin to weaken as it approaches the coast of Eastern Taiwan tomorrow.

Krosa's large EYE shall make landfall just north of Hualien City, Taiwan

early Sunday morning around 2 AM local time (18 GMT), traversing the

mountainous region of Northern Taiwan throughout Sunday morning, passing

very close or over Taipei around 5 AM local time. The system shall exit

Taiwan via Taiwan Strait before noon, Sunday. The 2 to 5-day forecast

shows KROSA drifting offshore along SE China, with its EYE moving along

the coastal areas of Fujian & Zhejiang, China Sunday afternoon until

Tuesday evening, Oct 09. On Wednesday Oct 10, KROSA shall start recurving

towards the NE in the direcion of Cheju Island and South Korea, as a

downgraded Category 1 Typhoon.

+ EFFECTS: KROSA's outer rainbands continues to spread across Taiwan

and Northern Luzon. Cloudy skies with passing light to moderate and

sometimes heavy downpour can be expected along Lekima's outer bands...

becoming more intense and windy as the inner rainbands approaches. Its

inner rainbands remains across Batanes Group & Babuyan Islands...expec-

ted to reach Eastern Taiwan tonight or early tomorrow. Coastal Storm

Surge flooding of 13 to 18 feet above normal tide levels...along with

large and dangerous battering waves can be expected near and to the

north of KROSA's projected path particularly over Taiwan. Extreme

damage is possible on this type of storm surge. Far-fetched storm

surge is possible along the Northern, NW and Eastern coastal stretch

of the Philippines. Flash floods and mudslides are imminent along

river banks, low-lying and mountainous regions of the affected areas.

Precautionary measures must be initiated especially along the path of

this monster typhoon.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Moderate Southwest (SW)Monsoon enhanced

by Super Typhoon KROSA (INENG) - will continue to bring mostly cloudy

skies with possible intermittent rains & SW'ly winds of 15 km/hr or

higher across Western Philippines becoming more frequent over Batangas,

Calamian Group, Mindoro, Boracay Island Resort, Romblon, Lubang Island,

Bondoc Peninsula, Burias & Ticao Islands, Masbate & Western Bicol. Land-

slides and flooding is likely to occur along steep mountain slopes, river

banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas, while big sea

waves or surges generated by this monsoon can affect the coastal and

beach-front areas of Western Visayas and Western Luzon. Meanwhile, the

rest of the Philippines is under the active ITCZ (Monsoon Trough), which

will bring scattered rains and thunderstorms most especially in the

afternoon or evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 05 OCTOBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 21.2º N...LONGITUDE 124.8º E
DISTANCE 1: 300 KM (162 NM) ENE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH

DISTANCE 2: 450 KM (242 NM) NE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH

DISTANCE 3: 450 KM (242 NM) SE OF HUALIEN, TAIWAN

DISTANCE 4: 490 KM (265 NM) ESE OF KAOSHIUNG, TAIWAN

DISTANCE 5: 535 KM (290 NM) SE OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 240 KM/HR (130 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 295 KM/HR (160 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY FOUR (4)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 926 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NNW @ 11 KM/HR (06 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: BATANES-TAIWAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 1,205 KM (650 NM)/VERY LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 39 FEET (11.8 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 PM MANILA TIME FRI OCTOBER 05
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#03 - BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS.
#02 - CALAYAN AND BABUYAN ISLANDS.
#01 - CAGAYAN, APAYAO & ILOCOS NORTE.

12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 06 OCTOBER: 22.2N 123.7E / 230-280 KPH / NW @ 15 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 06 OCTOBER: 23.4N 122.6E / 220-270 KPH / NNW @ 15 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 07 OCTOBER: 25.9N 121.1E / 185-230 KPH / N @ 05 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 05 OCTOBER POSITION: 21.0N 125.0E.
^OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, TY 17W HAS GENERALLY MAINTAINED INTENSITY,

ALTHOUGH THE EYE DIAMETER HAS INCREASED FROM 30 TO 35 NM OVER THE

PAST 06 HOURS. TY 17W HAS BEEN STEERED NORTHWESTWARD ON THE PERI-

PHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA THAT
APPEARS TO HAVE LINKED UP WITH THE STORM'S PERIPHERAL ANTICYCLONE. THE
TRACK SPEED HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY FROM 08 KNOTS TO 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS...(more)

>> KROSA {pronounced: kro~saah}, meaning: Crane.
Name contributed by: Cambodia.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 PM (08 GMT) 05 OCTOBER: 21.3N 124.8E / NW @ 15 KPH / 185 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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