Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon KROSA (INENG) heads for Fujian-Zhejiang... [Update #011]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #011

Name: TYPHOON KROSA [INENG/17W/0715]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) SUN 07 OCTOBER 2007
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) SUN 07 OCTOBER
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 022
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TYPHOON KROSA (INENG) LASHED THROUGH NORTHERN TAIWAN LAST NIGHT AND

IS NOW MOVING ALONG TAIWAN STRAIT...EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST

OF FUJIAN PROVINCE THIS AFTERNOON...DOWNGRADED TO CATEGORY 2, WITH

WINDS OF 165 KM/HR.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: KROSA is expected to resume moving NW'ly with its

EYE passing over the beach front areas of Fujian Province this after-

noon. The 12 to 24-hour forecast shows KROSA weakening further upon

landfall off the Coastal areas of Fujian and Zhejiang Province early

tonight and shall turn NE back to sea or off the East China Sea

tomorrow morning.

+ EFFECTS: KROSA's weakening EyeWall is now off Taiwan Strait and is

expected to affect the Coastal areas of SE China later this afternoon.

Its inner raibands continues to spread across the Chinese Provinces

of Fujian and Zhejiang and across Northwestern Taiwan. Typhoon-force

winds with very heavy rains can be expected within the Eyewall while

Tropical Storm-Force winds not exceeding 110 kph and intermittent

rainfall can be expected along its inner rainbands. Meanwhile, Krosa's

outer rainbands continues to spread across Taiwan, extending over other

portions of SE and Southern China. Cloudy skies with passing light to

moderate and sometimes heavy downpour can be expected along its outer

bands. Coastal Storm Surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide

levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves can be expec-

ted near and to the north of KROSA's projected path particularly over

Taiwan & SE China. Moderate damage is possible on this type of storm

surge. Far-fetched storm surge is possible along Okinawa and Southern

China. Flash floods and mudslides are imminent along river banks, low-

lying and mountainous regions of the affected areas. Precautionary

measures must be initiated especially along the path of this typhoon.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Weakening Southwest (SW)Monsoon enhanced

by Typhoon KROSA (INENG) - will continue to bring mostly cloudy skies

with possible intermittent rains & SW'ly winds of 15 km/hr or higher

across Western Philippines. Landslides and flooding is likely to occur

along steep mountain slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone

areas of the affected areas, while big sea waves or surges generated

by this monsoon can affect the coastal and beach-front areas of Wes-

tern Visayas and Western Luzon. Meanwhile, the rest of the Philippines

is under the active ITCZ (Monsoon Trough), which will bring scattered

rains and thunderstorms most especially in the afternoon or evening.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: TWO SMALL TROPICAL STORMS NAMELY:
HAIYAN AND PODUL HAS SIMULTANEOUSLY DEVELOPED OVER THE OPEN SEAS
OF THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC...NOT A THREAT TO ANY LAND MASS...HAIYAN
ON THE OTHER HAND HAD DISSIPATED ALREADY, WHILE PODUL CONTINUES
TO MOVE

MOVE FAST TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 07 OCTOBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 25.6º N...LONGITUDE 121.2º E
DISTANCE 1: 120 KM (65 NM) NW OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN

DISTANCE 2: 210 KM (113 NM) NNW OF HUALIEN, TAIWAN

DISTANCE 3: 145 KM (78 NM) ESE OF FUZHOU, CHINA

DISTANCE 4: 255 KM (137 NM) SOUTH OF WENZHOU, CHINA

DISTANCE 5: 345 KM (185 NM) NORTH OF KAOSHIUNG, CHINA

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 165 KM/HR (90 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 205 KM/HR (110 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY TWO (2)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 956 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 22 KM/HR (12 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: FUJIAN-ZHEJIANG PROVINCES
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 935 KM (505 NM)/VERY LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 20 FEET (6.0 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME SUN OCTOBER 07
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 07 OCTOBER: 26.5N 119.7E / 130-160 KPH / NNW @ 11 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 08 OCTOBER: 27.7N 119.3E / 100-130 KPH / N @ 15 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 09 OCTOBER: 30.4N 120.0E / 65-85 KPH / NE @ 05 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 07 OCTOBER POSITION: 25.6N 121.2E.
^TY 17W (KROSA) TRACKED ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF TAIWAN
AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF CHINA. DURING THIS TIME,
TY 17W WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY FROM A 115 KNOT SYSTEM TO 75 KNOTS.
THIS WEAKENING WAS CAUSED BY THE DISRUPTION OF THE INFLOW INTO THE
STORM, AS WELL AS, LAND INTERACTION AND THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER
CONTINENTAL AIR. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL AND MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND THERE IS VERY LITTLE DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. TY 17W TRACKED MORE WESTWARD THAN
FORECAST PREVIOUSLY DUE TO A STRONGER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE STORM THAT IS EXTENDING ACROSS THE EAST
CHINA SEA...(more)

>> KROSA {pronounced: kro~saah}, meaning: Crane.
Name contributed by: Cambodia.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) 07 OCTOBER: 25.7N 121.1E / NORTH @ 20 KPH / 130 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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