Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS KROSA (INENG) lingering off Zhejiang...[Update #013]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #013

Name: TROPICAL STORM KROSA [INENG/17W/0715]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) MON 08 OCTOBER 2007
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) MON 08 OCTOBER
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 026
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TROPICAL STORM KROSA (INENG) HAS MADE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHEASTERN CHINA

...BARELY MOVING ALONG SOUTHERN ZHEJIANG...DISSIPATING BUT STILL QUITE

A PUNCH CARRYING WINDS OF 85 KM/HR.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: KROSA is expected to start moving slowly NE'ly to-

wards the Coast of Zhejiang Province within 24 hours and dissipate

further. Tomorrow morning, KROSA shall be downgraded to a Tropical

Depression upon moving back to the East China Sea on its way to Wes-

tern Japan. This weakening system shall continue to lose strength as

it enters an area of unfavorable atmospheric environment (cooler wa-

ters and increasing wind shear conditions). Complete dissipation of

KROSA shall be expected early Wednesday morning, Oct 10.

+ EFFECTS: KROSA's weakening center is now over Zhejiang Province with

its inner rainbands spreading across the rest of Fujian and Zhejiang.

Gale Force to Tropical Storm winds with heavy torrential rains will

prevail near its center, while strong winds not exceeding 60 kph with

intermittent rainfall can be expected along its inner rainbands. Mean-

while, Krosa's outer rainbands continues to spread across Western Taiwan,

extending over other portions of SE and Southern China including Shanghai

area. Cloudy skies with passing light to moderate and sometimes heavy

downpour can be expected along its outer bands. Coastal Storm Surge floo-

ding of 1 to 2 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dan-

gerous battering waves can be expected near and to the north of KROSA's

projected path particularly over SE China. Minimal damage is possible on

this type of storm surge. Far-fetched storm surge is possible along Wes-

tern Taiwan, Okinawa and Southern China. Flash floods and mudslides are

imminent along river banks, low-lying and mountainous regions of the

affected areas. Precautionary measures must be initiated especially

along the path of this storm.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Southwest (SW) Monsoon has considerably

dissipated over the South China Sea. Climatic pattern shows transition

phase into the Northeast Monsoon which shall start sometime this

November.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: A new developing Tropical Disturbance

(LPA/1008 MB) has spotted near Palau Island or about 1,215 km. ESE of

Surigao City (8.5N 136.5E)..moving West slowly. This disturbance will

be closely monitored for possible development and threat to the

Philippines this week. Stay tuned.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 08 OCTOBER
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 27.8º N...LONGITUDE 120.1º E
DISTANCE 1: 55 KM (100 NM) WSW OF WENZHOU, CHINA

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 85 KM/HR (45 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 989 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NNE @ 00 KM/HR (00 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: ZHEJIANG PROVINCE
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 775 KM (420 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 12 FEET (3.6 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME MON OCTOBER 08
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 48 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 08 OCTOBER: 28.3N 120.3E / 75-95 KPH / ENE @ 13 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 09 OCTOBER: 29.0N 121.6E / 65-85 KPH / ENE @ 15 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 10 OCTOBER: 30.7N 125.4E / 35-55 KPH / ... @ .. KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 08 OCTOBER POSITION: 27.6N 120.0E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (KROSA) HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD OF CHINA OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. DURING THIS TIME,
TS 17W MADE LANDFALL AT 070900Z AS IT WEAKENED DUE TO INTERACTION
WITH THE SURROUNDING LANDMASSES AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER CONTINENTIAL
AIR. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE IMAGES
INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TS 17W TRACKED
ALONG THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
AS IT BEGUN A RECURVE...(more)

>> KROSA {pronounced: kro~saah}, meaning: Crane.
Name contributed by: Cambodia.
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RECENT TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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