Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon KROSA (INENG) may threaten Batanes... [Update #007]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #007

Name: TYPHOON KROSA [INENG/17W/0715]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) FRI 05 OCTOBER 2007
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) FRI 05 OCTOBER
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 014
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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POWERFUL TYPHOON KROSA (INENG) HAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE WEST...

INCREASES ITS DANGER TO BATANES AND TAIWAN...MORE STORM WARNING SIGNALS

RAISED OVER EXTREME NORTHERN LUZON.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: KROSA is expected to resume moving NW'ly for the

next 24 to 48 hours. The chances of this howler becoming a Super Typhoon

remains high as of the moment. Krosa's large EYE shall make landfall just

north of Hualien City, Taiwan tomorrow afternoon around 4 PM local time

(08 GMT), traversing the mountainous region of Northern Taiwan tomorrow

night, passing about 55 km. SSW of Taipei before midnight. The system

shall exit Taiwan via Taiwan Strait early Sunday morning, Oct 7. The 3

to 5-day forecast shows KROSA slowing down as it moves onshore off SE

China, with its EYE making another landfall in between the cities of Fu-

zhou & Wenzhou early Monday morning Oct 8. Upon its 2nd landfall over SE

China, KROSA shall start to weaken rapidly, weakening to a Category 1

Typhoon and shall continue losing strength as it moves Northward. It

shall be downgraded into a Tropical Storm as it passes near Shanghai

Wednesday morning Oct 10.

+ EFFECTS: KROSA's outer rainbands spreading across the coastal areas of

Taiwan and Extreme Northern Luzon. Cloudy skies with passing light to mo-

derate and sometimes heavy downpour can be expected along Lekima's outer

bands...becoming more intense and windy as the inner rainbands approaches.

Coastal Storm Surge flooding of 13 to 18 feet above normal tide levels...

along with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected near and

to the north of KROSA's projected path particularly over Taiwan. Extreme

damage is possible on this type of storm surge. Far-fetched storm surge

is possible along the northern and eastern coastal stretch of the Phili-

ppines. Flash floods and mudslides are imminent along river banks, low-

lying and mountainous regions of the affected areas. Precautionary mea-

sures must be initiated as the powerful typhoon approaches.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Weak to moderate Southwest (SW)Monsoon
enhanced by Powerful Typhoon KROSA (INENG) - will continue to bring

mostly cloudy skies with possible intermittent rains & SW'ly winds of

15 km/hr or higher across Western Philippines becoming more frequent

over Batangas, Calamian Group, Mindoro, Boracay Island Resort, Romblon,

Lubang Island, Western Panay, Western Negros & Western Bicol. Landslides

and flooding is likely to occur along steep mountain slopes, river

banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas, while big

sea waves or surges generated by this monsoon can affect the coastal

and beach-front areas of Western Visayas and Western Luzon. Meanwhile,

the rest of the Philippines is under the active ITCZ (Monsoon Trough),

which will bring scattered rains and thunderstorms most especially in

the afternoon or evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 05 OCTOBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 20.5º N...LONGITUDE 125.4º E
DISTANCE 1: 355 KM (192 NM) EAST OF BASCO, BATANES, PH

DISTANCE 2: 455 KM (245 NM) NE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH

DISTANCE 3: 550 KM (297 NM) SE OF HUALIEN, TAIWAN

DISTANCE 4: 575 KM (310 NM) ESE OF KAOSHIUNG, TAIWAN

DISTANCE 5: 630 KM (340 NM) SE OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 230 KM/HR (125 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 280 KM/HR (150 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY FOUR (4)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 929 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 17 KM/HR (09 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: BATANES-TAIWAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 1,205 KM (650 NM)/VERY LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 39 FEET (11.8 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME FRI OCTOBER 05
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#03 - BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS.
#02 - CAGAYAN AND BABUYAN ISLANDS.
#01 - ISABELA, KALINGA, APAYAO, ABRA, ILOCOS NORTE, AND

NORTHERN AURORA.

12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 05 OCTOBER: 21.4N 124.3E / 230-280 KPH / NW @ 17 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 06 OCTOBER: 22.7N 123.0E / 220-270 KPH / NW @ 13 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 07 OCTOBER: 25.1N 120.8E / 175-215 KPH / NNW @ 09 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 05 OCTOBER POSITION: 20.2N 125.7E.
^OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, TY 17W HAS GENERALLY MAINTAINED INTENSITY,

ALTHOUGH THE EYE DIAMETER HAS INCREASED FROM 30 TO 35 NM OVER THE

PAST 06 HOURS. TY 17W HAS BEEN STEERED NORTHWESTWARD ON THE PERI-

PHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA THAT
APPEARS TO HAVE LINKED UP WITH THE STORM'S PERIPHERAL ANTICYCLONE. THE
TRACK SPEED HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY FROM 08 KNOTS TO 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS...(more)

>> KROSA {pronounced: kro~saah}, meaning: Crane.
Name contributed by: Cambodia.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) 05 OCTOBER: 20.3N 125.4E / WNW @ 15 KPH / 175 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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